Just One Thing: Will Thomas Massie survive?
Six states (Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania) have primary elections today including some very interesting races in Kentucky and Georgia. (See guest info about Henry Olsen below).
Thomas Massie (R-KY) represents a district in northern Kentucky that includes suburbs of Cincinnati and is quite libertarian leaning as shown by also being a strong base of support for Sen Rand Paul. He's facing his biggest electoral challenge since his first election, facing the Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. I don't know anything else about Gallrein and if I lived in this district I'd have a VERY hard time deciding how to vote. Massie used to be one of my favorite Republicans and now he's one of my least-favorite. Ineffective and seems to be trolling for clicks all the time. (Like Lauren Boebert in her first and maybe second term, but she's been more professional, albeit with an occasional hiccup, since then as far as I can tell.) But I'm sick of Trump's constant wars against dissenters and revenge tours which, I must admit, he usually wins. I'd like Trump to lose this one. And I don't need another Trump boot-licker in Congress though it may be unfair to assume that's what Gallrein would be. I sorta wish they could both lose. Overall, I think my desire for the party to stop their cultish Trump sycophancy trumps my probable slight preference for Gallrein on policy and my dislike of what Massie seems to have become BUT I'm disgusted by how Massie's supporters (not sure if I can pin this on Massie himself) have run what I consider to be at least one antisemitic ad, and it's hard to tell whether Massie is just against foreign aid or anti-Israel or antisemitic at this point, though I will not assume the last one. Boy this would be a tough decision if I lived in KY-4. Don't want to reward either Trump or Massie...what's a voter to do?
As of this writing (6 PM MT on Monday), Polymarket has Gallrein as a 60/40 favorite which is quite close when it comes to betting odds. Two weeks ago, Massie had a dominant lead in the betting odds, roughly 75%-25% over Gallrein. KY-04 Republican nominee? Odds & Predictions 2026 This is due to recent polling which showed a sharp drop in Massie's lead and, in one case, a shift to a Gallrein lead, but I have no idea how to gauge the likely odds of the polling. I do think that 1) a Trump endorsement goes a LONG way in a Republican primary, and 2) Massie has his own strong base of support including plenty of folks who love Trump but will stick with Massie in this race. Again, that's why this race seems so close.
Oh, this is the most expensive congressional primary election in US history now, with spending surpassing $30 million!
This is just not OK no matter what he says about his "personal capacity" and no matter who paid for the trip: Hegseth steps away from war duties to campaign against Trump foe | Reuters
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Today's Guests
George Brauchler is the District Attorney of the 23rd Judicial District, which is Douglas County. He (and the DougCo Sheriff Darren Weekly) are VERY upset with Gov Polis' commutation of the prison sentence of one Brandin Kreuzer and George joins us to explain why.
DA, sheriff criticize Gov. Polis over clemency for man who shot deputy
Here's what Polis said about the situation, so you have the other side of the story:
One in particular I’d like to highlight is Branden Kreuzer, who I granted clemency to today. Mr. Kreuzer committed a series of crimes when he was 19, culminating in an armed robbery of a gas station, a chase with police, and an assault on a peace officer. These were very serious crimes. Kruezer’s sentence was longer than many people receive for crimes resulting in death. Since entering DOC, Kreuzer has demonstrated remorse and been a model for rehabilitation, establishing a program called Redemption Road CrossFit that operates in multiple DOC facilities, and he’s been a mentor and role model for countless offenders. To my mind, his good works are worthy of earning him a second chance despite the seriousness of his crimes when he was 19, and I have faith that he will do even more good for Coloradans outside the prison walls than inside. He will be released to parole effective June 1, 2026.
Polis's letter to Mr Kreuzer is on page 40 of this document: 2026 Clemency Letters.pdf - Google Drive
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Martin Faith is the founder/owner of the Scottish Group which includes my morning show partners Scottish Stained Glass, Scottish Window Tinting, and Scottish Home Improvements. His company/companies was awarded by the (federal) Small Business Administration as the best small business in Colorado for 2026 which resulted in an invitation to Washington DC where Trump addressed his group. He'll tell us about that experience. He'll also tell us about how COVID transformed the way he does business.
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The great Henry Olson returns to the show. Henry is a Washington Post columnist and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. He’s also the host of perhaps the single best political podcast, called Beyond the Polls. AND he’s the author of the Washington Post newsletter, Margin of Victory
Henry Olsen bio
Henry on X/Twitter: X
Podcast: Listen to Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen on Ricochet
Newsletter: Margin of Victory - Newsletters & Email Alerts | The Washington Post
Some stuff we'll talk about:
Kentucky (Massie) primary: GOP Rep. Thomas Massie defiant as Trump seeks to oust him in primary: "I'm going to win" - CBS News
Multiple interesting primaries in Georgia: Georgia primaries preview top of the ticket toss-up races for November : NPR
“He’s not doing what he said he’d do”: Trump’s Approval Sinks Amid Unpopular War, Darkening G.O.P. Prospects - The New York Times
Axios: GOP polling collapse
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Other Stuff
Seriously? Again?
Trump suspends planned Iran strikes | Semafor
Trump says attack on Iran paused after Gulf states' requests
Some folks are making hay of Trump consulting with all these folks to make his decisions. I don't mind not attacking. I do mind repeatedly making the most aggressive of threats and then doing nothing. Better not to make the threats, or to attack without warning, than to do this.
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This fits two categories: The ugly American and "why we can't have nice things": 2 Americans arrested in Japan for climbing into viral baby monkey Punch's zoo enclosure - CBS News
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A very controversial character from the 1990s is gone: Mark Fuhrman, former LAPD detective who investigated O.J. Simpson, is dead
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If this is what it seems to be, jail seems appropriate. Also, the district should claw back as much money as they can: Former Cherry Creek superintendent, wife showed 'favoritism' to firm
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Three weeks of testimony and two hours of deliberation that didn't even get to the merits (or lack thereof) of Musk's claims (though I think there really weren't any).
A Jury Crushed Elon Musk’s AI Lawsuit with OpenAI's Sam Altman in Less Than Two Hours - Newsweek
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It's remarkable how tone-deaf Republicans are on this. It's one of the dumbest examples for members of the House and Senate of taking a bad position in order to appease Trump. The parliamentarian gave them an out, a way to save themselves from Trump gracefully, but they seem not interested in taking the off-ramp.
Senate parliamentarian deals blow to $1B security proposal for White House | AP News
Republicans try to resurrect ballroom security funding | Semafor
Trump privately fumes over imperiled ballroom security money | Semafor
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All taxpayers should care about this: The Great California Medicaid Grift - WSJ
Of course there will be LOTS of jobs in a sector where government will overpay for services, or pay for services that aren't even rendered: 100% of California Private Job Growth Is in Health Care - Unleash Prosperity
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A "gustnado"? Gustnado touches down near Denver airport | 9news.com
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This will NOT work out well for Republicans politically. Also, I think Trump really would like to pass "comprehensive immigration reform" but has been scared away from it by the anti-immigrant part of his base. I hope the bipartisan Dignity Act makes progress.
Trump abandons Dreamers despite past sympathy
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This is a VERY difficult spot for the hospital. Violate Colorado law or (maybe) lose federal funding, which could be a death sentence for the hospital. I understand the majority's ruling but I would have voted with the minority in this case: Children's Colorado must resume care to transgender plaintiffs, state Supreme Court rules by 5-2 - Colorado Politics
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The one thing I want to say about this: while the mother did the right thing calling the police the real less is parents, keep your guns locked up! Police were searching for teens before shots fired at San Diego mosque | AP News
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Another interesting CO Supreme Court ruling: Man who asked mom to lie to parole officer can stand convicted, Colorado Supreme Court decides - Colorado Politics
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There will be calls to ban oil exports. They're definitely raising US oil prices (while lowering global oil prices which puts some offsetting downward pressure on US prices, but not enough to offset the upward pressure domestically.) US’ record energy exports drive up fuel prices at home | Semafor
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I won't say the obvious thing: Chaotic teen brawl goes viral after teen terror prompts US Attorney Pirro's plan to prosecute parents
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Hips don't lie (about tax liability): Shakira acquitted of tax fraud, court orders Spain to hand back $70 million
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I didn't get to this yesterday...a broad topic of ongoing Trump (the president and his family) doing things that are legal but gross...
This bothers me a lot. But it's barely even being mentioned.
Trump Bought Up to $5 Million of Nvidia Stock — Then OK’d AI Export Deals That Sent Shares Soaring
And then there's this: Trump Mobile says T1 phones will ship this week
From the original announcement of the phone: "While customers can easily switch using their current phone, Trump Mobile is also excited to announce it will release the 'T1 Phone' in August. It is a sleek, gold smartphone engineered for performance and proudly designed and built in the United States for customers who expect the best from their mobile carrier."
Later they switched to this: "Meet the T1™ Phone - Premium American-Made Smartphone for Performance & Privacy" but the text of the page doesn't say American-made. It says "American-Proud Design. The T1 Phone isn’t just powerful; it’s shaped by American innovation. With American teams helping guide design and quality, we focus on delivering a device built with care and precision." Riiight...that apparently means they designed the American flag printed on the case...but it only has 11 stripes when the flag actually has 13, so that about does it for quality control. It's hard to know what phone this really is though it's very likely a Chinese phone that they put in a new housing in the US to claim "assembled in America."
Let me be clear about something: Most phones are made largely or entirely in China (and some elsewhere in Asia). None in the US that I know of and certainly none of the big brands. I don't object to that. I object to trying to sell to "patriotic" Americans as if they're buying something American. I also object to Trump's ongoing efforts to force American companies to make everything in America when it's not economically (or, for now, technologically) feasible, as his own family's latest grift have shown.)
Check out the community note about the Trump phone. To be clear, I don't know that it's that same Chinese phone mentioned in the note. Also the published specifications have changed including pictures showing, for example, three camera lenses in a triangular pattern and then three lenses oriented vertically. And finally, I note that as of the moment of this writing, the link for the phone at the Trump Mobile website is https://enroll.trumpmobile.com/device-detail/Ml8x. The MI8 is a model of phone from leading Chinese phone maker Xiaomi.
Trump Mobile says T1 phones will ship this week
Check out the community note:
And finally, this seems like an outrageous slush fund for friends of Trump: Trump drops IRS lawsuit in exchange for DOJ $1.8 billion 'weaponization' fund | Reuters
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Today's Video
Lightening it up a bit, here's my lovely wife Kristen a few years back. She's the first interview, with the Australian accent. I hope you enjoy, especially if you're a gardener!