Is the war nearly over?
Oil prices are down bigly and stock index futures up significantly (though not nearly as much as oil is down) on this reporting:
Trump pauses Hormuz Strait ships drive, claims Iran deal progress
U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say
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Indiana primaries show Trump still retains yuge influence over the GOP base
It's a(nother) bad day for American politics thanks to Trump and his followers as incumbents who stood up against Trump's terrible push to make Congress even more gerrymandered lost bigly to Trump-backed opponents who, I trust, will be less principled on other issues too.
Meanwhile, in a Michigan (State Senate) district that Harris won over Trump by just 1%, a Democrat just beat a Republican by 20%: Democrat Chedrick Greene’s win in Michigan state Senate election gives the party another over-performance | CNN Politics
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Just One Thing: The politics of reproduction
With the hardcore prolife movement frustrated with President Trump, Republicans are in a tough spot. Some of these social conservatives want to discourage the use of birth control. Some (with plenty of overlap) want to limit the availability of the "abortion pill" (which is usually really two different drugs) which account for about 60% of abortions in the United States these days. Courts have gotten involved in recent days in the latter question.
This isn't an easy position for the GOP to be in. Anti-abortion groups are a big source of votes and money for Republicans and the GOP base needs them to turn out in November. But as we saw shortly after the Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs, perceived (or actual) threats to the availability of these drugs is exceptionally motivating for millions of women (and plenty of men). In the aftermath of the ruling, Democrats won quite a few special elections and triumphed on related ballot measures, even in red states.
Pro-lifers want federal involvement in the issue: they want a federal ban on abortion. It will not happen but any effort in that direction that appears to meet with even brief success, such as a temporary halt on the ability for women in a particular state to order mifepristone from another state, will be used with great effect by Democrats and groups that support them.
The Antiabortion Movement Is Turning on Trump - WSJ
Republicans lose either way, but losing a handful of the most aggressive pro-life voters will be less bad than appeasing them and motivating probably 3x or 5x as many voters who won't tolerate interference in what they consider to be a basic right to access these medications.
Supreme Court restores access to abortion pill mifepristone through telehealth, mail and pharmacies
Supreme Court temporarily restores ability to receive abortion drug mifepristone by mail
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Today's Guests
David Dickerson is president and CEO of Wings over the Rockies. We'll talk about the Wings' Space Race 5K - Wings Over The Rockies Sunday, May 10 (Mothers Day). And I'll have a 4-pack of tickets for Wings to give away!
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Other Stuff
Quite a bit here that was on the agenda for yesterday but that I didn't have time to get to...
It's not often that the world of political nerds is focused on primary elections for state legislative seats but that was the case with Indiana's primary last night as President Trump endorsed opponents to SEVEN incumbent state senators who defied his (stupid) desire for the state to draw new congressional district lines.
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Glad it’s not happening now but how did this happen for so long without the public knowing? House sexual harassment payouts exceeded $300,000 - POLITICO
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Gross: One of California’s Ritziest Beach Towns Has a Problem: A Tsunami of Raw Sewage - WSJ
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A little more about politics and polling: Brutal poll numbers for Trump, but the Dems have their own problems...
Semafor Washington, DC: Back-up plan | Semafor
Republicans spot opening with Black voters
My take is basically the same as Leland Vittert's (as he expressed on yesterday's show): the public dislikes Trump and dislikes Democrats but overall they dislike Trump more and unless something big changes, the GOP is going to get trounced in November. It's not just the risk of losing the Senate (which would be a very big deal) but also what folks aren't talking enough about yet: Republicans getting wiped out "down-ballot" in state legislative and maybe even governors races in swing districts and swing states (or even light red states) across the country.
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It's literally a snoozefest: Han River nap contest returns - The Korea Herald
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Have you tried these? Smalls Sliders is opening several locations across Denver
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As I've said for years, Gov Polis (and plenty of other Dems) love "local control" except when the locals don't want what they want: Colorado lawmakers abandon efforts to legalize smaller lots for housing - The Colorado Sun
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A great example of Polis protecting us from the worst of the left. I expect the next governor, especially if it's Phil Weiser, to sign this sort of bill.
And that will make this problem much worse: Colorado Lost Workplaces at a High Rate in 2024 (Common Sense Institute)
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AI is not (yet, at least) killing jobs. And overall the economy remains remarkably resilient in the face of high energy prices and fairly high interest rates and really dumb tariff policy.
1 big thing: Strong March hiring - Axios Macro
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Extra double-secret...Unreleased memo underlies Gov. Jared Polis' support of investment bill
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I understand wanting to try to ensure some degree of safety, but they probably can't. What they can do is slow down development of AI and let China surpass us.
White House Considers Vetting A.I. Models Before They Are Released - The New York Times
AI's break from its early idealism is on full display
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Today's Video
I want all of these