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On Friday evening, the Artemis 2 capsule landed within a mile of it's planned splashdown location. An incredibly perfect end to a nearly perfect mission.
Just One Thing: War is chaos
I wrote a fairly long Substack this weekend which you can find at The Ross Report | Substack
I hope you'll read it and subscribe (for free).
Here's the beginning of the note:
It’s reputationally perilous (or would be if not for the fact of the public’s insanely short attention span) to write during a time of chaos, and nothing is more chaotic than war.
I mean the term “chaos” more in its physics sense than in its common usage, but both apply.
Chaos (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
A bastardized version of a longer quote by von Moltke (often attributed to Napoleon) is “no (battle) plan survives first contact with the enemy.”
Here’s the actual quote:
The tactical result of an engagement forms the base for new strategic decisions because victory or defeat in a battle changes the situation to such a degree that no human acumen is able to see beyond the first battle. In this sense one should understand Napoleon’s saying: ‘I have never had a plan of operations.’ Therefore no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force.
-Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder
The same goes for punditry and other scribblings about a war. I’ve been intentionally humble in my thoughts and predictions about the US and Israel’s war with Iran because, as with any chaotic system, prediction with a high degree of certainty is both impossible and ridiculous. The best we can do is say, “Here’s what I see as some of the possible outcomes and here’s my guess as to the relative probability of each.”
It’s important to remember that low-probability events can — and often do — occur. Donald Trump had a low probability to win the election in 2016. At the beginning of the 2024 NFL season, the Philadelphia Eagles were getting 12-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl…and they did. Earthquakes happen in places that haven’t seen a tremor in decades. Someone has flipped a coin to be heads (or tails) 10 times in a row (the odds of which are 1/1,024 if the coin is equally likely to land on heads or tails.) You get the idea.
Again, please read the whole note and subscribe here: The Ross Report | Substack
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One More Thing: Trump says an MMA guy is too good looking to be a fighter
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Today's Guests
Quite a pair of heavy hitters today...
Henry Olsen is one of the nation's top experts on politics and polling. He's been in Hungary following the election there. We'll talk about that election, in which Victor Orban lost after 16 years as prime minister, and its implications for international affairs and global populism. I note that the new guy, Peter Magyar, is not the equivalent of a Democrat to Orban's Republican. They're both on the right, with Magyar maybe slightly less populist. The campaign was more about corruption and inflation than a major change in political direction for that country. And we'll talk US politics as well.
I highly recommend Henry's podcast. I listen to every episode: Listen to Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen on Ricochet
Hungarian election (yesterday)
Hungary's Orban concedes landmark defeat to center-right opposition | The Times of Israel
Hungary election: Trump ally Viktor Orbán loses after 16 years in power
The Hungarians Who Just Threw Out Orbán - by Will Collins
US stuff: Trump controls Republicans with fear. Now comes a test. - Ethics & Public Policy Center
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Doomberg is a green chicken. And also a team of incredibly insightful analysts especially about energy-related issues. They have the most successful Substack in the finance category and I highly recommend a subscription (even though it's my most expensive subscription.) They make you smarter and the quality of their writing is fantastic.
We'll discuss the big-picture issues raised by the US's war with Iran.
If we have time: Axis & Allies - Doomberg
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Other Stuff
Congrats to the DU Pioneers! DU Pioneers win 11th national championship at Frozen Four behind Johnny Hicks’ 29 saves
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Unsurprisingly there was no deal in the first direct US-Iran peace negotiations which were spearheaded by VP J.D. Vance. I don't mean "unsurprisingly" as a jab at Vance. Nobody would have gotten a deal. It's in Iran's interest not to have a deal and in any case the US and Iran couldn't be further apart on terms of a deal.
So Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz though, to be precise, it's really a blockade of ships that are coming from or going to a port in Iran. The US (and allies, if any participate...so far we know France and Britain won't) would allow ships to pass that are starting and ending at non-Iranian ports but there's no reason to think that Iran will permit such transit without serious threats, which they're already issuing.
Here's Trump announcing the blockade. I think he's wrong or lying about their having been many points of agreement.
US Central Command says it will begin blockade of Iranian ports Monday | AP News
Iran Says No Port in Persian Gulf or Sea of Oman Will Be Safe if Its Ports Are Threatened
US says warships transit Strait of Hormuz in mine clearance op - World News
After collapse of U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, the path to peace is less clear
I think, and others think, that Trump significantly miscalculated how the Iranian regime would respond to all of this. Andy McCarthy and Kevin Williamson have similar views though, as usual, Kevin's is much more aggressive:
Trump Is Anything but Unpredictable - Kevin D. Williamson - The Dispatch
Trump’s Iran Miscalculation | National Review
This is not just a safety problem for the world but also a political problem for Trump after months of crowing about how he "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program even as experts repeatedly said that wasn't true. Yes, it was severely damaged, set back by some single-digit number of years (maybe just 2 or 3), but NOT destroyed.
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Congrats: Rory McIlroy wins Masters, first to repeat since Tiger Woods - ESPN
Rory McIlroy joins a very small club: Rory McIlroy joins elite list of back-to-back Masters champions - ESPN
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Eric Swalwell has always been difficult/impossible to like, at least for me. And it's been fairly clear that he "can't keep it in his pants". But now it's coming back to haunt him. On Sunday evening, he "suspended" (meaning ended) his campaign for governor (where he was the frontrunner) and it's appearing somewhat likely it may even cause him to have to leave or be expelled from Congress. Even though I can't stand the guy, if those things happen to him due to these accusations, I hope the accusations aren't lies.
On Polymarket, a week ago Swalwell was way ahead in the betting odds, well over 60% in a big field. As of 6 PM Sunday, he's trading 1% while annoying billionaire climate lunatic Tom Steyer is now in the betting lead at 54%. I think that's too high in such an unsettled situation. Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose is in a distant second at 15%. He seems more pragmatic than the others, which you'd expect from a mayor, but really I know almost nothing about him. The repulsive Katie Porter is in a close 3rd at just over 14%. Republican Steve Hilton is trading 9% which is surprisingly high for a Republican even though it would be one of the biggest political upsets in history if he ended up winning.
Defiant Swalwell still sees a path to victory in governor’s race
Journalist says Swalwell's behavior toward women was known in 2013 | Fox News
Seriously? Exclusive | Eric Swalwell denies rape claims in video filmed at donor’s mansion
Double seriously? Penthouse Pet accused of stealing from sugar daddies has more victims: sources
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There have been quite a few liberal popes and I'm sure Pope Leo, aka Pope Bob, is among them. Still, not sure this is a great idea for Trump:
Trump Attacks Pope Leo as Too Liberal and ‘Weak on Crime’ - The New York Times
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Seems like a good move for everyone but I hope that the Penner group gets some management influence and not just passive ownership: Broncos owners Greg and Carrie Penner join Rockies ownership group | 9news.com
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The Colorado Republican Party is such a mess:
Colorado GOP faces uphill battle as it starts 2026 campaign in the red - Axios Denver
The GOP assembly this weekend nominated one utterly unelectable candidate (Scott Bottoms) and one who seems interesting but who I just can't get over feeling presents some sort of land mine just waiting to explode (Victor Marx.) They're both pastors.
Barb Kirkmeyer avoided the assembly and will be on the ballot via petition. We have to hope that unaffiliated voters and sane Republicans choose her as the GOP's nominee or the party will lose even more other races than they're already going to lose. It's incredible how brain-dead those who used to run, and want to again run, the GOP are. They'd rather be kings of ashes than princes in a thriving nation.
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A rare but not entirely unheard of phenomenon -- massive growth in demand for a new technology: AI Is Using So Much Energy That Computing Firepower Is Running Out - WSJ
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Charlie really doesn't like sports gambling. The rest is interesting too: The Justice Department probing the NFL’s antitrust exemption could lead to new regulations put in place
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If you thought the US was woke, check this out: Assistant or Associate Professor- Tier 2 Canada Research Chair in Forestry and Environmental Stewardship (Deadline: May 14, 2026) | UBC FES
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Doesn't say what they actually agreed to but at least it's over: JBS plant employees ratify tentative agreement - Denver Gazette
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Don't ever rely on government for anything. Or a private company given a monopoly by government. This is utterly insane: Mississippi updated liquor computer system and now bars are running out of booze - The Washington Post
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Today's Video
Let's end today's blogcast with sublime beauty of one of history's greatest artists