The new Iranian Supreme Leader is just like the old one
Khamenei's son is understood to be a corrupt hardliner like his dad. Decent chance he wakes up dead one day soon.
Khamenei's son survives Iran strike, set to become leader | The Jerusalem Post
Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba named Iran's new Supreme Leader | Iran International
Portraying safety and stability
The leader of the United Arab Emirates, who goes by MBZ (not to be confused with MBS of Saudi Arabia) walked through a shopping mall yesterday to show the people that he believes is country is safe. This is something you simply never see...
We deserve a better explanation (for the war)
Please read (and subscribe for free) to my Substack. Here's today's note:
We need a better explanation - by Ross Kaminsky
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Best line of the day: Pretty soon we're not going to know anybody
President Trump on whether there is anyone in the Iranian government whom the US might be willing to work with
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Just One Thing: Texas Primary results
What was so interesting about the results in Texas is how different from previous polling they were, especially on the GOP side. In short, it seems that a decent number of participants in both parties decided to go with the less insane, and more electable, candidate.
State Rep James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary election race | Fox News
With 93% of the vote in, Sen John Cornyn is leading Texas AG Ken Paxton by about 1% (roughly 42% to 41%, because of the presence of several other candidates, one of whom got over 13% of the vote.) This means Paxton and Cornyn will go to a runoff in May. See more in my tweet below.
2026 Polls: Texas Senate - 270toWin
In the last 10 polls captured by the website 270 to Win, only 1 had Cornyn ahead, and the average of the last 6 polls had Paxton up by 3.5%.
Pro-Cornyn folks spent an insane amount of money, maybe $70 million, to boost him. And it worked, given that he was way behind Paxton in early polling (nearly a year ago). Paxton's people probably spent something like $5 million. Money does matter when the difference is that big.
And on the Democratic side, polling had already shifted toward Talarico a lot, but that just meant going from a huge Crockett lead to a tie, spurred largely by the "earned media" (which basically means getting ones name in the news so that people hear about you a lot without having to pay for advertising) after Stephen Colbert's claim that he was prevented (by CBS lawyers afraid of the FCC's current interpretation of the "Equal Time Rule" from airing an interview with Talarico. (I believe that Colbert was warned that he might have to offer equal time if he aired the interview but was not told not to run it. Meanwhile, Talarico posted the outright lie that the FCC had told CBS not to run the interview.) Colbert posted the video on YouTube instead where it got millions more views than it would have on broadcast TV and the story went like wildfire through Democratic social media.
Crockett has been a very large online presence. Talarico was, as all candidates must be these days, online as well but also did more "traditional campaigning" than Crockett: How James Talarico Won An Upset in Texas - NOTUS — News of the United States In a sense, Crockett was done in by her own ego, thinking that using foul language to talk about Trump was all she needed to do to win. At this point it seems that Crockett will not be able to see re-election to the US House, or at least she hasn't filed to do so and I don't know that she has a way to do so at this point. (I don't know enough about TX politics to know that answer.) It sure would be great if we don't see her again in politics.
The Democratic establishment thinks Talarico might have a chance to win the general election, especially if Republicans nominate Paxton, so Dems spent bigly on Talarico, with about $25 million in advertising on his behalf, to only about $5 million for Crockett who had the support of the left-wing base of the party but not of the people with the big checkbooks. There was huge Hispanic turnout in the Rio Grande Valley region of southern Texas and it went heavily for Talarico.
Analyzing the polling is tricky on the Dem side because so much depends on which polls you include in your average. RealClearPolitics only included 3 polls and that average actually had Talarico up by more than he won by. 270 to Win included 5 polls and that average showed a tie, but with huge variability from one poll to another.
I wrote this just before the last polls (in Dallas) closed on Tuesday evening. Much of the analysis still holds even though we now know the final results:
Also, I haven't been paying attention to this primary but you don't often see an incumbent get this crushed in a primary. Dan Crenshaw (the eye patch-wearing former Navy SEAL who MAGA thinks isn't sufficiently subservient to Donald Trump) got hammered in his primary: Texas Second Congressional District Primary Election Results 2026 - The New York Times
The power of Trump is still remarkable (unfortunately).
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Today's Guests
Peter Pitts joins the show to discuss the common hospital billing traps that can cost patients thousands of dollars. As the President of the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest, he explains how to spot these scams and the importance of requesting an itemized bill to dispute errors.
Five Hospital Billing Scams That Can Cost You Thousands
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Asaf Romirowsky joins the show to share his expertise on the war with Iran American foreign policy in the Middle East. Dr. Romirowsky is the Executive Director of Scholars for Peace in the Middle East and co-author of the book October 7: The Wars Over Words and Deeds.
Asaf Romirowsky Official Website
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Elliott Ackerman joins the show to discuss "The Case Against the War." Elliott is the author of several books and a former Marine and CIA paramilitary officer. He served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan and was awarded a Silver Star, a Bronze Star for Valor, and a Purple Heart.
Elliott's take on the Iran war: The Case Against the War
Amazon.com: Elliot Ackerman: books, biography, latest update
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Other Stuff
There was a rumor this morning that some part of the Iranian government, maybe from their intelligence services, had reached out indirectly to the US to discuss an end to the war. Just a rumor, but stock index futures rose modestly on the report. Wall St futures inch up after report on Iran-US talks to end war By Reuters
I don’t know if this will get any tanker owner to be willing to risk the Strait of Hormuz while there’s still a war on. I kinda doubt it.
Trump vows US insurance to tankers as oil prices jump over Iran conflict
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DHC Secretary Kristi Noem had a (deservedly) tough day in the US Senate
I think she's wildly unfit for the job. An inveterate self-promoter who has said too many stupid things at really important times. Trump should replace her but, unlike in his first term when he changed cabinet secretaries with the frequency that most people change their socks, this time he's avoiding firing anybody. Still, I suspect she doesn't last much longer.
I have both of the videos below queued up to key points. In the latter video, Sen Kennedy (R-LA) is questioning Noem's spending of $220 million (!!!) on advertisements about immigration policy, many of which featured her.
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Unsurprising for this untalented hyperpartisan hack who should never hold office again (or previously, really): Griswold falsely claims she argued before the Supreme Court
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It’s expensive but at least it needs a lot of work: Brown Palace Hotel hitting the market
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Epic Passes for 2026-27 go on sale, luring Gen Z with big discounts: Epic Passes for 2026-27 go on sale
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DOJ takes Live Nation-Ticketmaster to court for antitrust trial: Live Nation-Ticketmaster antitrust trial
I love non-obvious takes like this although this is addressing a different part of the ticket market, not the claimed Ticketmaster/Live Nation monopoly: Opinion | Capping concert, sports ticket resale won’t protect fans, cut prices - The Washington Post
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Brita is an acquired taste and while I’m sure she means well I’m far from sure that state GOP leadership will acquire it. I also don’t know just what kind of political masochist would want that job. Colorado GOP chair Brita Horn loses ‘no-confidence’ vote
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I suspect that Trump saw the prior story and blew a gasket: Trump administration pursues fight after abandoning law firm executive orders
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Snowboarder whose eye popped out in Keystone crash sues Vail Resorts-owned apparel store: Snowboarder sues Vail Resorts-owned apparel store
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This may or may not be a worthy project, but it’s so frustrating to have yet another example of government taking on permanent costs with a temporary funding source: Bustang’s success is both a boon and potential cause for bust
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A problem but not a surprise: Denver restaurants now cost more to operate than in New York City
A partial solution, perhaps: Denver leaders could soon debate a cut to restaurant wages
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Live Updates: Trump defends war with Iran as conflict widens, military names first service members who were killed: Trump defends war with Iran as conflict widens
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I’ll be half-glad if it’s here. It’ll turn Denver into a traffic mess but mean I could cover the convention without having to travel. Denver is one of five finalists to host the 2028 Democratic National Convention
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So cool, or maybe hot: World's largest acidic geyser erupts for first time since 2020
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Today's Videos
Excellent (and understandable if you focus) math nerdiness. Thanks to listener Matt for sending this along!
Here's a fun story that I just learned but should have known long ago. Actually two stories:
A little history about some of my favorite music and my favorite movie:
Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd Paid for 'Monty Python and the Holy Grail'
How Rock Stars Saved the "Grail" - CultureSonar
And did you know that the famous coconuts (in lieu of horses) happened because the movie budget didn't allow renting real horses?