Just One Thing: Really, another shutdown?
The partial government shutdown happened (despite my unconfident prediction that they'd avoid it) and may go on longer than anyone hopes; it looks like the House’s bid to end the partial shutdown just got more dramatic and difficult. I'm so sick of this movie. Maybe not surprising that today is Groundhog Day. It’s the usual Washington games, but with the House speaker shooting down (some) Democrat demands while facing a massive battle to get a funding deal passed. It is time they stop the games and figure out how to keep the lights on without making it a circus.
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Thank you, Substack subscribers
Thank you - by Ross Kaminsky - The Ross Report
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Today's Guests
Christian Toto is the proprietor of the Hollywood in Toto website and podcast. We're talking movies and pop culture with Christian Toto, specifically how the Melania documentary is opening with strong ticket sales despite being panned by critics. We'll also look at the audience response on Rotten Tomatoes and dive into the report that the First Lady really doesn’t care.
Typical: I can't wait to not watch the Melania movie | Opinion
Wonder if the NY Times hated publishing this so they made sure to emphasize that it still looks like a bad investment for Amazon: ‘Melania’ Arrives With Strong Box Office Showing for a Documentary - The New York Times
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Newly appointed State Representative Ava Flanell joins me to discuss (anti-)firearms legislation working its way through the CO state legislature. As a business owner and firearms instructor, she has some thoughts on the party-line vote sending the 'red flag' law expansion to the Senate and SB26-043 Record Keeping & Reg of Sale of Firearm Barrel | Colorado General Assembly which would require a background check from a FFL to buy a gun barrel.
Ava's thoughts on Colorado Senate Bill 26-043
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Other Stuff
The silver and gold markets took a massive hit, with particular damage to the levered long-silver futures ETF, AGQ, which dropped 60% in a single day. Imagine losing 60% in a day; that’s what leverage can do to you. It's a crash that, as far as a one-day drop in price, is only exceeded by 1980's Silver Thursday (3/27/80) when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market: ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Silver Thursday: Hunt Brothers' Attempt to Corner the Silver Market
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One of the few things coming out of D.C. that actually makes sense is tapping Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Reserve chairman. It's one of the smartest moves I've seen lately, but it's a partnership they really need to make work: Kevin Warsh tapped as next Fed Reserve chairman is one of Trump's smartest moves
It's also part of the reason that silver and gold crashed, and that crypto got crushed on Friday and, as of Sunday night, continues to drift lower: Bitcoin Price, BTC Price, Live Charts, and Marketcap
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Congrats to Jamal Murray: Nuggets Fans React to Jamal Murray Being Named an NBA All-Star
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Team Trump LOVES the headline: U.S. steel production has exceeded Japan's for the first time in 26 years. The administration wants us to think it’s a significant shift in the manufacturing landscape: US steel production exceeds Japan's for first time in 26 years
But actually what's happened is that, yes, the US produced a little more than it did several months ago but the primary driver of us catching Japan is a persistent decline in Japanese steel production.
US steel production exceeds Japan's for first time in 26 years - Nikkei Asia
The article above notes that the price of a particular important type of steel is up 30% in the past year. That's TERRIBLE.
The uninformed panderers in the room applauded when Bessent said "this was entirely driven by your tariffs." Indeed. So Trump is going to try to save a few hundred jobs of steel workers while costing thousands of jobs in companies that use steel. But the unionized US Steel workers make for good TV.
As you can see here: Steel-making employment is up but production of machinery (at least some of which uses steel) and of transportation equipment are down more, and manufacturing employment generally is down during the first year of the Trump administration: Manufacturing Employment Data Confirm the Concentrated Benefits—and Dispersed Costs—of Trump’s Tariffs | Cato at Liberty Blog I want to be clear about something, though: US manufacturing employment has been dropping in recent years, and longer-term in recent decades, even as we continue to manufacture a lot. Workers are being replaced by more efficient processes and by automation/robots.
It's so funny how Trump always rounds up even when he knows the number. Bessent just said "26 years" so Trump says "almost 30 years." It's pathological
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Kanye West is out with a public apology for his antisemitism in a letter through the Wall Street Journal, claiming "I am not a Nazi." He also just signed a massive new record deal, so we'll see if the public is actually buying this routine:
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Donald Trump is claiming that the latest Epstein files "absolve" him, which is a bold claim even for him: Epstein files ‘absolve me’, Trump claims
How Trump Appears in the Epstein Files - The New York Times
This is getting boring but it's not going away because Dems think it's in their interest to keep it going.
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Rush news: Neil Peart memorial at Lakeside Park to get boost from Rush
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The GOP majority in the House is eroding after a Democrat won a Texas special election, as expected. Mike Johnson's majority to erode as Democrat Menefee wins Texas special election
Surprising, though, was a Democrat flipping a Texas state Senate seat—is this another "canary in the coalmine" for the GOP? Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips Texas state Senate seat
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I have no idea what's going to happen: Iran's supreme leader warns of regional war if US attacks
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He was frustrated when he didn't get his way and now Republicans are suffering because he did: Bovino frustrated by directive to conduct 'targeted operations' in Chicago
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These are the stories that really upset folks (including me and Jeana) about Denver—petty crimes hurting small businesses like this flower shop that had a fire lit right behind it: Video shows fire being lit behind Denver flower, gift shop
What I'll want to know is whether the guy goes to jail and faces charges that are likely to keep him off the streets for a while.
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Trump has some massive plans for D.C., including a 250-foot arch and a complete two-year rebuilding of the Kennedy Center. He says the funding is in hand for the latter, though at the moment it hasn't been disclosed where the funding is coming from nor how much will be required.
This after many artists, donors, and ticket-buyers are boycotting the Kennedy Center since it was taken over by Trump cronies who made him chairman of the institution and put his name on the building. It really is kinda gross. Anyway, I guess it makes more sense to close it down for two years than to suffer the continued embarrassment of seeing that so many people are boycotting the "Trump-Kennedy Center" (a name that will last maybe one week, but probably one day, into the term of the next Democratic president.)
And a 250-foot-tall arch?!? Does the guy think he's Caesar, or Napoleon?
Not everyone is happy, including Philip Glass who pulled his symphony, and it seems ticket sales have already plummeted: Trump favors 250-foot arch that would tower over other monuments
Trump announces 2-year closure of Kennedy Center for ‘complete rebuilding’
Philip Glass pulls new symphony from Kennedy Center over Donald Trump takeover
Kennedy Center ticket sales have plummeted since Trump takeover
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Speaking of the arts, Jeana is doing something I don't think I've ever done: watch the Grammy Awards. She'll tell us what happened and we'll all see if we know any of the musicians. I shouldn't be proud not to know them, really. I should do a better job of keeping up with new music. It's just that I often don't like it as much as the music I grew up with. Not always, but often. Sometimes it's quite good, unsurprisingly.
Grammy | The Recording Academy | News, Performances & Videos
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Today's Video
This is what to remember when you hear Gov Polis and his friends talk about getting Colorado to "Net Zero". It's nonsense. Dangerous nonsense.
Thanks to listener Andy for this blast from the past