Just One Thing: Another sorta-quiet weekend of war

It's been rather strange (in my opinion) that for three weekends in a row now there have been few or no major developments in the war. How to quantify that? Relatively flat stock market openings on Monday. As I write this on Sunday night, S&P futures are down about 30 points, or about 0.5%. Oil is around $102.50, a huge (and painful) recovery after trading down to $87 last Wednesday. UPDATE: At 4 AM MT on Monday, stock index futures are up slightly, with S&P futures up around 0.4% even as oil remains slightly higher at about $101.50.

There are all sorts of rumors: Trump is planning ground operations. Iran may target Middle East locations of US universities in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian colleges (which were probably locations of Iranian weapons development and research). Russia helped Iran target an American radar plane at a base in Saudi Arabia. (The plane was basically destroyed, and it's an important tool that we only have 16 of, according to reporting.)

Trump still says that Iran is desperate to make a deal. I doubt it but these are things that can appear one way and change instantaneously, and I would expert Iran to keep up maximum aggressiveness of behavior and rhetoric throughout any negotiation process to maintain as much leverage as possible.

As I've said throughout this process, making a prediction in war is something not much better than a random-number generator. Yes, we have our guesses but we must have a lot of humility about them even if the guesser has spent years thinking about (or being involved with) the most complex international relationships and war.

My GUESS is still that this will go on quite a bit longer than Trump said at the beginning and longer than he's still saying now. I think he's mostly lying about Iran being desperate for a deal but I also think Iran is lying (in a way) when saying that there are no talks with Americans...because the talks are going through intermediaries so no Iranian official is talking directly to an American official.

Here's the thing that not enough folks understand: We're pretty much at the point where even if the Strait of Hormuz opens up, it's going to take weeks for flows of oil, fertilizer, and chemicals to get back to normal and for supplies of these things, especially oil to Asia, to recover to pre-war levels. This risks global stagflation (higher prices and a slowing economy.) It's not guaranteed, of course, but it's a real possibility. This is part of the reason that the bond market seems so confused right now, but overall interest rates are significantly higher than before the war. It's particularly bad for the real estate market as mortgage rates which had declined to a recent-years low just under 6% are now back up to the 6 3/8% range.

Anyway, we'll see, and I still think it's weird how the weekends have been so (relatively quiet.

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Today's guest

Peter LiFari is Housing Fellow at the Common Sense Institute Colorado (where I am the Leprino Free Enterprise Fellow). We'll discuss the availability of reasonably priced housing to purchase...which often means condominiums.

Colorado Condos: Is Defects Liability Fixed? Are Insurance Costs Easing? Are Condos Coming Back?

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Other Stuff

Seriously? Rockies get walked-off, swept in Miami to open the season

Now a much better sports story...

I don't want to jinx DU so I'll just say "well done so far": DU Pioneers advance to third straight Frozen Four after victory over Western Michigan in Loveland - Denver Gazette

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Who knows what's really going to happen? I think even Trump doesn't know.

Trump considering operations to seize Iran oil, uranium, reports say By Investing.com

Again, will he or won't he? When it comes to a significant number of troops on the mainland of Iran, I just don't see it:

Why this photo should be at the front of Trump's mind as 10,000 US soldiers are set to deploy

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Speaking of oil, this is the right move. First, Trump already proved the pressure he can put on. Second, the Russians (and Chinese) are daring Trump to set a precedent of blockading an island with which we are not at war...particularly the Chinese who would love to do the same to Taiwan:

U.S. will let Russian oil tanker reach Cuba, breaking Trump’s effective fuel blockade - The Washington Post

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House Republicans refused to accept Senate Republicans' cave-in...at least that's how they saw it. But the Senate bill passed unanimously and this move gives an opening to place the blame for the ongoing partial shutdown on House Republicans.

House Vote Sets Up Clash With the Senate on D.H.S. Funding, Prolonging Shutdown - The New York Times

Meanwhile, this is probably illegal but maybe in a gray zone depending on what account they take the money from: Trump has ordered TSA workers be paid, regardless of what Congress does. Here’s what we know | CNN Politics

Some are asking why he didn’t do this before. I suspect that it’s one or both of: 1) they weren’t sure how to do it legally (and it still might not be), and 2) they were hoping Dems would pay a bigger political price, but feckless Republicans are perennially unable to hang an issue around the Dems' necks.

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AI Stuff

The cybersecurity aspect of this really is concerning:

Everyone's worried that AI's newest models are a hacker's dream weapon

More detail in the original reporting: Exclusive: Anthropic ‘Mythos’ AI model representing ‘step change’ in power revealed in data leak | Fortune

What can't AI do (eventually)? OpenAI is throwing everything into building a fully automated researcher | MIT Technology Review

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Unsurprising, and a logistical and accounting nightmare for FedEx and UPS: FedEx and UPS charged fees for collecting tariffs. Now, customers want that money back.

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I’m not going to make a lot of it, but I don’t like it: Treasury Announces President Donald J. Trump’s Signature to Appear on Future U.S. Paper Currency | U.S. Department of the Treasury

Overall, I'm so sick of how Trump wants his name on everything and how his boot-licking enablers go along with it. The Trump-Kennedy Center? Are you freakin' kidding me?

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I get it, and Trump has some dictatorial tendencies that I don’t like. That said, with the important exception of trying to continue to impose tariffs, he has abided by Supreme Court decisions, which is not what a king would do. More importantly, the people to be afraid of are the bureaucrats and the deputy undersecretaries of whatever, not the president. The real tyrant is the bureaucracy which outlasts any presidency.

Thousands gather in Denver as part of national 'No Kings' protest

Anti-Trump 'No Kings' rallies pop up in thousands of US cities

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Even though I lived in Holland, I never did visit the tulip fields. Wish I had...

Tulip blight halts blooms in Denver Botanic Gardens’ Annuals Garden until 2029

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I haven't verified this but it wouldn't surprise me and it's a real problem:

Ross Kaminsky on the News with Jeana Gondek