Just One Thing: Trump to back down a little bit on tariffs
You know that I think trade wars and tariffs are perhaps the stupidest economic policy imaginable. That said, even if I were to go along with the idea of crushing foreign competition to incentivize production, factory-building, etc in the US, I'd say that you'd have to be particularly brain-dead to tariff items which aren't produced -- and won't be produced no matter what -- in the US, and especially items that lots of people want and need like...wait for it...food.
Seriously, the idea of a tariff on coffee or chocolate that literally cannot be grown here is beyond idiotic. Increasing tariffs on beef is only slightly less stupid because if high prices for beef would drive increases in beef production it would have happened already as beef prices have been high for a couple of years now. And in the meantime even if you think you can achieve that, you're making beef unaffordable for millions of people. Trump tariffs help push U.S. beef prices higher
In any case, the Trump administration is now telegraphing some changes in tariff policy to remove some of these most harmful and pointless of tariffs: Trump Officials Prepare Tariff Exemptions, Seeking to Lower Food Prices - The New York Times
They have no choice because Americans are giving Trump very low favorability ratings on the economy, primarily due to high costs of food and the public's implicit understanding that not only has Trump not made any serious effort to lower food prices but his primary economic policy, tariffs, has raised them. Lowering tariffs on these things inevitably reminds people that tariffs on anything raises prices on that thing.
This was inevitable because the history of tariffs is well understood by most people, although not by Trump.
If I sound angry with Trump on this, it's because I am. Going into the 2024 election, I said that Trump's single worst policy position and where he posed the most risk to the nation was his lack of understanding of the huge benefits of trade...even in a situation where we have low tariffs and other countries impose high tariffs on American goods. To be VERY clear, I am not saying that's the optimal situation. It's definitely not and it's definitely not fair to American producers. The problem is that Trump's solution is to punish American consumers. And that was never going to work out well politically or economically.
I also think the timing is fortuitous for Trump because even though this looks like admitting a mistake it also takes some of the focus off the "Epstein Files" which, weirdly, remain politically potent right now...again because of terrible messaging by Trump and his team who have made innumerable unforced errors on both of these subjects.
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One More Thing: Stocks swoon
The stock market had its worst day in a while yesterday. Always have to be careful in attributing "a reason" but I'll give two main things, the former likely more important than the latter:
The government shutdown likely means that the October jobs report and October inflation report may never be released because it may be too difficult to collect the necessary data so far after the usual collection period. With some members of the Fed still quite concerned about inflation which remains stubbornly close to 3%, trading in Fed Funds futures showed the market now at a slightly less than 50% chance of a Fed rate cut next month. Just a month ago, the betting on that was over 90%. Longer-term interest rates, such as the benchmark 10-year note, rose modestly. An unfavorable (i.e. steady rather than lowering) interest-rate environment is especially harmful for tech stocks, which got hit especially hard yesterday with the Nasdaq down about 2.3% while the S&P 500 fell 1.65%. The second factor is simpler: profit-taking. Over the past month, before yesterday, the S&P and the Nasdaq-100 (different from the Nasdaq but they track quite closely) were each up around 3.5%, and that's following massive rallies over the prior 6 months so a lot of folks have a lot of profits they can lock in if they want to.
I don't have a strong opinion about the market's direction here. Talking with my investment guy, I told him I want to remain about where I am, which is a decent exposure to stocks but slightly more conservative than they'd typically recommend.
S&P 500 slumps as December rate cut odds fall, rotation out of tech accelerates By Investing.com
Government shutdown is over, but the data gap could be permanent
Odds of December FOMC rate cut fall below 50% By Investing.com
Stock Market Today: Dow Falls After Shutdown Ends; Nasdaq Leads Losses — Live Updates
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Today's Guests
Phil Weiser is the attorney general of Colorado and is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor. We'll discuss a settlement he reached with PetSmart that will likely have implications for other companies trying to engage in similar behavior, namely making former employees repay the supposed cost of training (after telling the employees) that the training is free.
2025-11-10-Stipulated-Consent-Judgment.pdf
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Mike Johnston is the mayor of Denver.
Denver council rejects 2026 budget, but mayor’s $1.66B spending plan will still govern operations
Mayor's office says "Denver will not be bullied" over Denver Post building lease - CBS Colorado
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Jack Corrigan is KOA's voice of the Colorado Rockies. We'll talk about yesterday's press conference announcing the team's new director of operations, Paul DePodesta, and some interesting remarks by owner Dick Monfort: Rockies CEO Dick Monfort says 'I'm not as bad as anyone thinks I am'
Rockies intro DePodesta, Dick Monfort signals he’ll step back from baseball ops
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Kevin Nealon is an actor, comedian, and one of the longest-serving cast members on Saturday Night Live
He's playing at Comedy Works South at the Landmark tonight and tomorrow night: Kevin Nealon | Live in Denver | Comedy Works
Kevin has an awesome YouTube series called Hiking with Kevin: Kevin Nealon - YouTube
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Other Stuff
I think people and businesses will figure this out pretty fast: Burger King Braces for the Demise of the Penny - WSJ
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A disease that kills so many children...this is welcome news: First New Malaria Drug in Years Performs Strongly in Late-Stage Testing - WSJ
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Two stories about trouble among the intelligentsia:
Harvard Says It’s Handing Out Too Many A’s. Students Are Fighting Back. - WSJ
Why I Cut Ties with Science’s Top Publisher
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Obviously I'm a strong supporter of Israel, and I think Israel MUST restrain and prosecute these settlers.
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I'm psyched too! Hall of Fame coach Bill Cowher, iconic broadcaster Jim Nantz fired up as CBS brings heavy hitters for Broncos vs. Chiefs - Denver Gazette
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When a tax hike is so nuts that even Gavin Newsom opposes it: The California Campaign to Introduce a First-of-Its-Kind Billionaire’s Tax - WSJ
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Related to the CA tax topic... The data point in here about Nvidia is amazing: Share the Wealth, Don’t Redistribute It - WSJ
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What if he’s innocent? Do you think it's possible? Probable? 'I can't take any more of this': Prince Andrew allegedly pleaded with Epstein to deny allegations - ABC News
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France just seems so helpless. If this were America there would be big fund-raising efforts at the museums raising money from private donations for security projects. But when you have a government that taxes people to death and makes citizens think that government will take care of any and every problem, the people are neutered and stripped of agency and charitable impulse: It’s Not Just the Louvre: French Museums Are Losing the War With Thieves - WSJ
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Today's (Russian) video
Hilarious: Russia "human" robot falls on stage during debut - Newsweek