Jury duty, maybe
I might have jury duty today. Part of me doesn't want to take the time and be away from the show, as I will be today. And part of me thinks it would be fascinating to be on a jury for an actual trial. I think the latter part is the stronger sentiment. More often than not, only a small percentage of people who get the jury summons notices end up on juries so I probably won't and I'll likely be talking with you again tomorrow.
In the meantime just a short blog note today
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Just One Thing: The passing of Pope Francis
Pope Francis has died at the age of 88. After a recent hospitalization (that, I admit, I didn't think he would survive), he seemed frail but on the mend. It was not to be.
Francis was somewhat controversial in that (like many Jesuits) he was very politically liberal and offered left-wing opinions on big issues like economics, immigration, and climate change...none of which are things that fall within the Pope's official concerns. I was never a fan, but I'm also not Catholic so my opinion isn't important. On the upside, the Argentinian pope, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Buenos Aires in 1936, made at least some efforts to improve the relationship between the Catholic Church and Jews. Pope Francis, who advanced church’s relationships with Jews, dies at 88
I don't have much more to say about the Pope because, again, I'm not of his faith and he had little impact on my life other than to occasionally annoy me with his pronouncements on issues he did not seem to understand very well.
I wonder when we'll see the white smoke. Black and white smoke: What does each one mean in picking a new pope?
I note that the pope passed away just a day after meeting with US Vice President JD Vance. I don't know whether that means that Vance put a slow-acting toxin in the pontiff's tea or whether the pope said "If this is what the world has come to then I think I'd like to leave."
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Other Stuff
Here's a quote from a recent Doomberg note entitled "Escalation Dominance" about China's leverage in the ongoing trade war with the US and the risk of it turning into a hot war with Russia allying with China:
As the tariff war with China continues to spiral, so too does the risk of a hot one—especially as it dawns on President Trump and his team that China, not the US, holds escalation dominance. In a thoughtfully argued piece in Foreign Affairs, Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, highlights the asymmetry in trade between the two countries, noting that focusing on volume alone misreads the balance of power. Posen argues that the goods China buys from the US—soybeans, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and other bulk commodities—can easily be sourced elsewhere on the global market, whereas China supplies the US with a vast array of goods over which it holds an effective monopoly. We have long argued similar points in these pages.
As I scribble this one early Monday morning, stock index futures are falling again as is the US dollar. The rush away from US assets by foreign investors (including perhaps large pension funds and central banks) is something that may persist. Usually the dollar gets stronger and bond prices go up (causing lower interest rates) when the market is in turmoil because investors like to hide in those perceived safe assets. Instead, Trump's trade-wars-with-everyone policy has done great harm to the world's confidence in America as an ally, a trading partner, and perhaps as the issuer of the world's reserve currency. So far, I'd estimate these trade wars to have cost Americans about $10 trillion in lost investment value, mostly in retirement accounts, 401(k) accounts, etc, and trillions more in lost purchasing power as the value of our currency declines. And I suspect he's already causing a significant economic slowdown both within the consumer and business sectors. And for what? To make Trump feel better about trade concepts he doesn't understand? (For the record, I do think that we had and have significant problems in our trade relationship with China, though not primarily signified by a trade deficit. More on this below.)
Additionally, Trump is adding economic and market instability by threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve by hinting that he might want to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is probably behind the curve in cutting interest rates, which Trump wants him to do. But Powell also sees inflation staying above 2% even before the trade wars, the potential for inflation caused by tariffs which would make him hesitant to cut even though actually you can't do much to fight tariff-caused inflation by keeping tight monetary policy, and he sees a weakening dollar which will would be exacerbated by cutting rates. So while Trump may have a bit of valid frustration with the pace of rate cuts (but only a bit), his policies put the Fed in a bind. By implicitly suggesting he would replace Powell with a more compliant Fed chairman (perhaps someone less intent on squashing inflation), Trump adds nervousness to an already skittish market.
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How long until MAGA turns against Joe Rogan? How long until Joe Rogan turns at least loosely-affiliated MAGA against Trump or at least makes them a little more wary of just going along with everything Trump says and does? Arguably Joe Rogan was a key factor in Trump winning. If he stays with this tone, it'll be VERY bad for Republicans not just in the midterms but in the next presidential election:
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We didn't cover this on the show, but Kathleen Sgamma, formerly head of the Denver-based Western Energy Alliance, withdrew her nomination to be head of the federal Bureau of Land Management after someone uncovered a memo she wrote in 2021 that was very critical of the January 6, 2021 riots and Trump's role in them. It sure does seem like a thing that should have been unearthed in the due diligence before the nomination was made.
In any case, one can expect her deregulatory ethos to continue with whomever is selected next and it will impact Colorado: Trump to reverse Public Lands Act, threatening conservation on BLM land - The Colorado Sun
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