Just One Thing: Well, that was ugly
Yesterday was the first day since at least the late 1970s (and possibly ever, but we don't have good data before the late 1970s) that the S&P 500 was up more than 4% during a day but closed down more than 1%. It was one of the "technically" (i.e. chart patterns) ugliest days I've ever seen and shows a market that, along with investor confidence and perhaps consumer confidence (we'll see about this over the next month or two), is truly broken. As I wrote yesterday afternoon on X/Twitter after the market closed, I'd be very surprised if we don't have a very bad day today.
I won't believe the selling is done until we have a day that's the reverse of what I just described, in other words until we have a day when we open down big and close up on the day. Could be today but with the Chinese retaliation against the US, I doubt it. I think that Trump will stick with these disastrous policies for longer than other presidents would. A few reasons:
- He really believes tariffs are good
- He has opposed international trade for 40 years
- He doesn't want to look weak
- He's surrounded himself with yes-men
- He's not running for re-election and doesn't really care what happens to Republicans in the 2026 elections
I know that talking about trade and tariffs can get tiresome but this is literally the most important economic policy change in modern American history and almost certain to be the most harmful if not reversed. Trump shows no sign of backing down. And neither does China: China launches massive tariff retaliation on U.S. goods
This is also interesting: What we know about who pays for tariffs (Axios)
Last thing: long-term interest rates are now higher than before Trump kicked off the most aggressive parts of his trade wars last Wednesday. That suggests that the market is expecting inflation. Or rather stagflation, which is about the worst possible economic situation: lower growth, job losses, GDP decline...all combined with higher prices. It also suggests a massive loss of faith in the United States overall. It's a situation so bad that it can only be caused by government.
Elon Musk knows that these trade wars are insane and that Peter Navarro, a long-time anti-growth union-hack Democrat, is a dangerous idiot:
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Everyone should watch this
Some useful basic economics with implications for how one might think about trade
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Today's Guests
Co-host of KOA Sports, Ryan Edwards joins us for a few minutes to talk about the Nuggets firing coach Malone and the team's general manager.
Denver Nuggets fire head coach Michael Malone - Axios Denver
Denver Nuggets fire coach Michael Malone and GM Calvin Booth | Sports Coverage | denvergazette.com
One possible explanation: Mark Kiszla: Why were Michael Malone and Calvin Booth fired? Their bad relationship was wasting Nikola Jokic's generational talent. | Mark Kiszla | denvergazette.com
Leland Vittert is host of On Balance on News Nation weeknights at 7 PM and 10 PM Mountain Time. Everyone should subscribe to his (free) daily (on weekdays) email called War Notes which is basically Leland's show prep. It'll make you smarter.
"On Balance with Leland Vittert" on NewsNation
Leland has written a book to be published later this year but available for pre-order now: Born Lucky - Harper Horizon
Leland Vittert's coming book, "Born Lucky": From autism to anchor desk
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Hadley Manning, Executive VP of the Steamboat Institute joins us for a brief conversation to tell voters about this live debate this afternoon/evening at CU Boulder between (friend of mine and friend of the show) Jennifer Sey (former US national gymnastics champion) and Kevin Bolling, Executive Director of the Secular Student Alliance on the question of whether transgender women (who went through puberty as a male) should be allowed to compete in women's sports. I have to say I'm pretty surprised that anyone is willing to answer "yes" to this. Anyway, you can attend in person or stream online at the link below.
“Should transgender athletes be allowed to compete in women’s sports?” - The Steamboat Institute
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Brittany Pettersen represents Colorado's 7th Congressional District which encompasses most (or all?) of Jefferson County, some of western El Paso County, and some or all of Park, Teller, Lake, Chaffee, Fremont, and Custer counties. Brittany is a Democrat and a new mom and has been very involved with the recent push in Congress to find a way to let new moms (and dads?) vote, one way or another, from home for a few months after the birth of a child.
U.S. Representative Brittany Pettersen
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Other Stuff
Wow. Our state legislative Dems are truly out of control: Protect Civil Rights Immigration Status | Colorado General Assembly
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I may have Ben on as a guest soon but wanted to get this in front of you now: Crashing the Car of Pax Americana - Epsilon Theory
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Trade wars are not the only thing happening in the Trump administration: Trump’s Triple Win at the Supreme Court - WSJ
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This should concern the Denver City Council but I bet it doesn't: 'I can’t do business in Denver now': Developers blame energy regulations as commercial projects decline in Colorado | News | denvergazette.com
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I wonder if she can still afford it with the tariffs: Jessica Simpson defends drinking snake sperm, describes taste
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Sure, tariffs raise prices but it’s not so much that Trump wants to raise the price of wind and solar as it is that he’s tired of pretending the stuff is cheaper than it is by ignoring how much is spent on subsidies: Colorado utilities are trying to go green. Politics are in the way.
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I missed this story…it’s going to be a big deal for a lot of people. Won’t impact me very much…slightly increase my costs to buy some electronic parts. But all of these small (and not so small for other folks) cost increases will add up to a much poorer America: De minimis trade loophole to end May 2, White House says
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A couple things I didn't get to yesterday:
Nerdy but easy to understand story about more corruption of so-called climate science: (17) The Emperor Has No Lab Coat - by Dr. Matthew Wielicki
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The coolest science story in quite a while, or is it? Science resurrects the dire wolf — and our world is richer
Dire wolf from 'Game of Thrones' revived in 'de-extinction' project
The Return of the Dire Wolf | TIME
BUT: Experts dispute Colossal claim dire wolf back from extinction
BUT: No, the dire wolf has not been brought back from extinction | New Scientist
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Speaking of dangerous animals: Nevada man arrested after 7 'emotional support' tigers are seized from his home
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And I owe you this great sports article too: Opinion | Ovechkin’s goal-scoring record will be a tribute to him and the Capitals - The Washington Post
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A major take-down of Team Trump's approach to the US as the world's reserve currency:
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A more detailed conversation about what I said on the show yesterday regarding damage done by COVID to America's views of experts...and then going further: Martin Gurri: When Americans Gave Up Their Freedoms
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BUT: That article massively overstates prices on eBay: Trader JOES Mini Tote for sale | eBay
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Seems like a fine idea to me: Petition · Put Googly Eyes on NJ Transit Trains! - United States · Change.org
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Today's Videos
This dog has my energy today
Can you believe Dragon actually did this?