Val Kilmer, RIP
A great career; to me he'll always be Iceman
Val Kilmer, Film Star Who Played Batman and Jim Morrison, Dies at 65 - The New York Times (may require subscription)
Val Kilmer, 'Top Gun' and 'Batman Forever' star, dies at 65 | AP News
Yesterday's Election Results
Both Republican candidates for the House of Representatives in Florida won yesterday. Randy Fine won in FL-6, the seat vacated by Mike Waltz, and Jimmy Patronis won in FL-1, the seat vacated by Matt Gaetz (good riddance). They both won by a lot less than Trump won those same districts (which Democrats will consider a win) but by more than polling predicted (which Republicans will consider a win.) Bottom line: the actual winner is the person and party that won, and that's the GOP which now has a slightly more comfortable - but still small - majority in the House. Oh, I think the Republicans have a slightly better argument as to the elections being an additional "win" for them despite narrower victories than Trump had in their districts because of how massively the GOP was outspent in both races. In one of them, I think it was FL-6, the Dem raised ten times as much money as the Republican...and still lost by 14 points. It does give me a warm fuzzy feeling to think about Democrats wasting soooooo much money to back candidates who, in retrospect (and even prospectively, probably) never had a chance to win. I don't say that because I love Republicans but because Democrats in recent years have proven how harmful they are to the nation. (Don't bother with "but what about Trump?"...)
Republican Randy Fine wins Florida special election for Waltz seat
NOTE: Even though the State Supreme Court race is ostensibly non-partisan, I will use party affiliations to describe the candidates. (In fact, the conservative candidate was previously elected to office as a Republican.)
In the Wisconsin State Supreme Court election, the most expensive judicial election (by far) in American history, the Democratic candidate won despite being slightly (not massively) outspent, partly due to nearly $20 million from Elon Musk to various organizations supporting the Republican candidate. This was a much more important race than most people know and could actually result in a change in Congress if/when the WI Supreme Court manipulates congressional district lines to benefit Democrats. As I mentioned during yesterday's show, the betting odds had the Dem as a massive favorite.
Liberal candidate wins Wisconsin Supreme Court race in blow to Trump, Musk
On a more general point, I think it's disgusting how nakedly partisan and political many judicial races, and especially the Wisconsin Supreme Court, have become. I mean, on both sides but especially the Dems, you have judges strongly suggesting (though not exactly stating directly) in advance of hearing any case how they will rule, on cases of significant political concern. It's an abomination. Judges are NOT super-legislators.
Interestingly, a ballot measure that Democrats always tell you represents just evil Republican voter suppression passed easily. It amends the state constitution to require photo ID to vote. Worth noting that the provision already exists in state law but now that it is in the Constitution it will be MUCH harder for Democrats to overturn. I'm always fascinated by Dems' efforts to eliminate common-sense provisions designed to increase both actual and perceived election integrity: Wisconsin passes ballot measure requiring photo ID to vote
A Democrat won the election to be Wisconsin's superintendent of state public schools (an unusual job) but she was the incumbent so I don't read much into that particular result.
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It's Liberation (From Freedom and Prosperity) Day
Before talking about the news we await later today, a more macro point: Donald Trump is right that tariffs imposed on American products by foreign countries hurt the US...while also hurting those countries' own consumers (which can be corporations, not just individual end-users of products). He's right that those tariffs are unfair. He's right to try to do something about it. What he misses, though, is the fact that if he intends to try to use a long period of tariffs (or any trade barriers, really) to deal with the problem, the cure may be worse than the disease. I understand the idea of threatening to impose tariffs in order to get the other side to lower theirs but we have to remember that this threat is like threatening to shoot someone by putting your own hand in front of the barrel so it injures you quite badly at the same time. Tariffs are basically a national sales tax on certain items and of course you understand that YOU, not the seller or the manufacturer, pay sales tax. My fear -- and I said it going into the election -- is that Trump's deeply held views on trade are 18th-century mercanitilist nonsense and that if he acts on them by imposing tariffs (which he shouldn't have the authority to do) and not backing down quickly, he will drive the country into recession THIS YEAR. Trump apologists think he's playing some sort of 4-D chess; I don't think so. He just doesn't understand free trade and its benefits so he wants to attack free trade. I suspect he won't stop until markets and politics make him stop, or maybe not even then because he's a stubborn guy who never admits a mistake; he'll blame any bad outcome on "globalists" as if it's bad to be involved in a global economy. But it will be his fault. Still, Trump is unpredictable so it would be unwise of me to state with high confidence that I know what he'll so since I surely don't.
So, with that...
This afternoon, President Trump will announce his next raft of tariffs. We're all waiting to see whether he'll propose very little but just enough so he can say he's doing something (to appease MAGA and union leaders), whether he'll take some moderately harmful middle road, or whether he'll go for something extreme like 10% or 20% on every import (which will put the country into recession almost immediately.)
I maintain my view that Trump's insane views on trade have the potential to overwhelm the many good economic policies he has implemented and would support in Congress, and also to wreck Republicans politically in the 2026 midterms.
Trump tariffs would hit lower-income Americans hardest
When I agree with Mark Zandi it makes me wonder if I'm thinking about this wrong, but in this case I agree with him: New Trump tariffs loom with possible levies as high as 20%
I think Michael Strain has it about right: Why Is Trump Undermining the US Economy? by Michael R. Strain - Project Syndicate
Anyway, by this time tomorrow we'll know what Trump has proposed and have some sense of how the markets will react.
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Just One Thing: State legislature Democrats begin frontal assault on TABOR
HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION 25-1023
In this resolution, Democrats in the state legislature order the relevant legal department of the legislature to sue to overturn TABOR.
Here's the key text: "That the General Assembly authorizes and directs the Committee on Legal Services to engage appropriate legal counsel to file a lawsuit in the name of the General Assembly in state district court to determine the constitutionality of the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, section 20 of article X of the state constitution"
Truly remarkable reporting about US involvement in Ukraine/Russia war
The Secret History of America’s Involvement in the Ukraine War - The New York Times
I'm thinking about the potential aftermath of this reporting. It's every bit as difficult (or more) to predict Putin as to predict Trump. One wonders whether Trump in his ongoing fanboying over Putin will come out with something publicly -- if this reporting gets the public's attention at least -- and say "Biden did that but my administration is not helping Ukraine in that way." Or will he say nothing? Or will he say "yeah, and we're going to keep helping them until Russia signs and abides by a ceasefire." That last is the best but least likely outcome. Also, what about Putin? If he didn't know this already will it cause him to get angry with the US and become more obstinate in thwarting Trump's push for an end to the war? In a way I hope so because that is the most likely way to get Trump to finally do the right thing and recognize who the enemy is, something he has been so strangely unable to do.
Meanwhile, pretty smart of the president of Finland (who's an excellent golfer) to hang out with Pres Trump for a day. One never knows what might move Trump toward a better position regarding Ukraine and Russia, e.g. that Russia is the enemy and the antagonist and that ending the war, as Trump rightly wants to do, will require a lot more pressure on Russia (and less on Ukraine.) Finland’s president: ‘I just met Donald Trump. Russia is running out of time’
Trump showing such American weakness (quite off-brand for him but that's just what he's doing) will inevitably encourage reckless adventurism by China: China says Taiwan drills 'completed' after live-fire practice - Nikkei Asia
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Listener John thinks that I should face some of the AI parodying that Producer Dragon has been getting so he sent me this...
Today's Guests
David Migoya is a senior investigative reporter at the Denver Gazette. He recently had a fascinating story about the existence of a parallel private judicial system (for civil, not criminal) matters in Colorado. According to David, it's near-exclusive use is by rich people for divorces. Who knew?
Colorado private judges suppress cases at greater rate | Colorado Watch | denvergazette.com
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George Teal is a Douglas County Commissioner. He joins the show to give his thoughts on the politics and the law surrounding the commissioners' moves to begin the process of making DougCo a "home rule" county.
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Other Stuff
OK, this is too juicy not to mention and not since the Maury (Povich) Show will so many Americans be thinking about the results of a paternity test: Elon Musk says he sent MAGA influencer Ashley St. Clair $2.5 million, open to paternity test
First an older post and then newer ones:
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This is, as Joe Biden might say, a big f-ing deal
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Is it a "shortfall" if the budget is almost $700 million higher than last year? Colorado lawmakers finalize state budget proposal. Here’s what they cut. - The Colorado Sun.
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This is obviously correct but not necessarily a precedent for the New York vs Texas conflict: Alabama can't prosecute groups who help women travel to get an abortion, federal judge says | AP News
NY refuses to file Texas’ fine for doctor accused of prescribing abortion pills | The Texas Tribune
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A bad day for Speaker of the House Mike Johnson: Mike Johnson scraps his whole week after brutal defeat
House effort to allow remote votes for new parents survives, in major defeat for Johnson - CBS News
Speaking of Congress...
In which my question is answered about whether Cory Booker could take a bathroom break: Sen. Cory Booker sets record for longest Senate speech in history
I have to say that while Booker isn't in my list of favorite senators, I'm glad that a black guy broke Strom Thurmond's reprehensible record.
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I guess it's better than nothing, but I wonder if it's even legal to say that members of political parties other than that of the candidate may not vote in the election: Vacancy-appointed Colorado lawmakers would have to run to keep their seat after a year under reform proposal - The Colorado Sun
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Princeton is an odd choice given that so many other schools were (and are) so much worse: Trump administration suspends dozens of research grants to Princeton | CNN
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Oral arguments in an interesting case at SCOTUS today: Supreme Court considers South Carolina’s effort to strip Planned Parenthood of Medicaid funding - SCOTUSblog
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Of course they do: Uber, DoorDash Want ‘No Tax on Tips’ Expanded to Include Independent Drivers, Food-Delivery Workers - WSJ
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Ugh: Luigi Mangione Fans ‘Coming in Hot’ After Death Penalty News
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Interesting: Why there are a growing number of unsellable condos in Colorado - The Colorado Sun
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Where was the quality control? Denver changes AI-designed logo after discovering 'some issues'
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Today's Videos
Thanks to listener Andy for this one:
Hasn't he suffered enough?