Just One Thing: Trump halts aid (including weapons) to Ukraine
Trump Halts Military Aid to Ukraine After Oval Office Conflict with Zelensky | National Review
Trump Live Updates: U.S. Suspends All Military Aid to Ukraine, Official Says - The New York Times (may require subscription)
Top Republicans say they want Ukraine deal ‘back on track’ - Live Updates - POLITICO
(See more below re guest Noah Rothman)
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One More Thing: A different kind of war (the trade kind)
Donald Trump announced yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and China take effect today. I will note to listeners and other interlocutors who told me, when Trump threatened then the first time and used them as leverage against those countries which then said they'd basically do what Trump wanted regarding tightening their borders with the US, that I thought Trump would impose them anyway because Trump likes tariffs and does not only see them as leverage. He sees them as good policy, which is quite remarkable given how harmful they are. It means that 1) he's getting terrible advice or 2) getting good advice and ignoring it and that even after 4 years as president he 1) doesn't understand how tariffs work or 2) does understand but lies to the public about it.
The stock market got crushed yesterday. We'll see if it bounces back but I doubt it (unless Trump changes course, which I don't think he'll do soon.) Long-term rates like the 10-yr note and 30-yr bond are now below the rates when Trump became president. That could mean that markets are optimistic that the US gov't will borrow less thanks to DOGE and cost-cutting. But it could also mean that the market is starting to worry about recession. Nothing is more likely to cause recession (other perhaps than overly tight monetary policy) than trade wars and President Trump seems determined to start some.
I admit I've been very frustrated lately with so many people (Trump supporters) on Twitter spouting absolutely nonsense about tariffs as if they have any idea what they're talking about. I understand that trade economics is VERY difficult and often counter-intuitive and I don't expect lots of people to understand it. I've spent a LOT of time thinking about it and still don't consider myself even close to being an expert. The problem isn't that these folks don't understand; it's that they seem and act confident in their beliefs which seem to be based on what they read from other MAGA folks on Twitter. With lots of things it doesn't matter if you're wrong. But the large number of wrong people on this issue offer, at least for now, political support for Trump in engaging in trade wars which will harm not just the US but much of the world.
Almost immediately, China and Canada responded retaliatory tariffs.
Trump tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect | AP News
China slaps extra tariffs of up to 15% on imports of major US farm exports | AP News
‘No room left’ for a deal: Trump says Canada, Mexico tariffs take effect Tuesday - POLITICO
Trump tells US farmers to up production ahead of tariffs from April 2: ‘Have fun!’
Trump's really stupid comment to farmers: Truth Details | Truth Social
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Trade War
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Today's Guests
Brad Meltzer is a best-selling author of both fiction and non-fiction and I've had him on the show for more than one of each. His latest is very different. A lovely short book (based on a commencement speech he gave at the University of Michigan when his son was graduating) entitled "Make Magic." I recommend it as a gift for someone who could use a little inspiration.
Make Magic by Brad Meltzer - The little book of hope for anyone who has ever wished for more
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Bill Honaker is "The IP Guy". About a year ago I was talking about the panic-buying of Stanley insulated drink containers and I made clear on the air that I didn't know whether that was the same Stanley that makes tools and is now merged with Black & Decker. (It's not.) Now there's a lawsuit, with Stanley suing Stanley over the use of the name Stanley.
Bill Honaker - Intellectual Property Expert & Speaker
Stanley Black & Decker Sues Stanley Cup Maker - Intellectual Property Guy
Stanley Black & Decker sues Stanley drinkware maker over use of name | Manufacturing Dive
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Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review and one of the most interesting and erudite thinkers and writers I know. We'll talk about yesterday's news that President Trump announced a pause or halt to all US aid to Ukraine including weapons that are already on their way to Ukraine.
Here's my thinking: Lots of folks say that Trump likes tariffs as leverage. I say he likes that aspect but also just likes them for their own sake even though they're a bad idea. Similarly, I think that pausing Ukraine aid gives Trump significant leverage over Zelensky to sign some sort of deal (which will now feel more like blackmail but which Trump will describe as doing whatever he can to achieve peace) BUT I also think that Trump likes doing this for its own sake, in part because of his odd and unfortunate man-crush on Vladimir Putin.
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Other Stuff
It's hard to imagine that this could actually be in trouble in the State House of Representatives which has a much bigger Dem majority than the State Senate does (because the bill has passed the Senate): NRA-ILA | Colorado: FOID Bill and Age Restrictions On the Move
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I like it when public servants who commit malfeasance are found out and punished. But I like it more when they are found not to have done anything wrong. Report: CBI director did not give favors to agent who used racist slur (may require subscription)
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Second-order effects of Musk's getting involved in politics: Tesla’s plummeting sales risk its lucrative emissions credit earnings – POLITICO
Tesla's Carbon Credit Revenue Soars to $2.76 Billion Amid Profit Drop
Tesla's dominance over the carbon credit market explained | Global Fleet
I’m not going to hold back here: This is both stupid and corrupt: where does the crypto industry go now after Trump's bid to create strategic reserve?
$300 billion Trump crypto rally re-ignites reserve fight
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Do you talk on the phone less than you used to? Do you like talking on the phone as much as you used to? Gen Z are taking telephobia courses to learn the lost art of a call
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No thank you: Czech swimmers set new world record for largest polar dip | AP News
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Maybe lots of places should do this BEFORE they have a budget crisis: Marrero cuts 38 positions in Denver schools’ central office | Education | denvergazette.com
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This story is nuts: Rollout of new California bar exam plagued with glitches - Los Angeles Times
And it gets worse: California bar hunts for who leaked bar questions, applicants sue test administrator
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We need to make sure we're booting people who should be booted. I don't know if this guy qualifies and I don't know if he doesn't: Top New York City F.B.I. Agent Forced Out After Clash With Justice Dept. – DNyuz
It seems there are folks in the Dept of Justice who didn't want to obey the chain of command: Bondi confirms FBI handed over additional 'truckload' of Epstein files | Fox News
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I'll say it again: DOGE will get a LOT of pushback from the left, labor unions, and the bureaucratic state. So it's absolutely critical that it exude competence. DOGE website says it's now saved $105 billion, though it's backtracked on some of its earlier claims - ABC News
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I just wonder if it would be more efficient to simply pay some $ every month toward someone's utility bill. That said, if it's even close then there's definitely benefit in reducing the total demand for electricity and thus demand for utilities to have to build new power generation: How a Mines pilot project is warming Lake County mobile homes
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Today's Video
Yeah, the dancing kid is funny but I love how the woman in the background (sister? mom?) ignores the whole thing
THIS IS AMAZING