Just One Thing: Now what?
Gonna put these two first as I think they're both excellent:
Zelensky's Big Mistake: Why He Made It and How He Can Fix It
Michael Oren: What Zelensky Can Learn from Netanyahu
Following the catastrophic White House blowup among Presidents Trump and Zelensky and VP Vance, the world is recalibrating and trying to figure out what happens next. Everybody did a bad job in that meeting, and everybody is at risk of some seriously negative repercussions. But MAGA is gleeful. It's weird how MAGA basically supports a KGB killer now because somehow the fact that Ukraine is imperfect and its president is imperfect means we should side with the enemy? It's a moral failure of the first order, led by the president and his attack dog (not that you normally think of Trump as needing an attack dog.)
That said, Zelensky completely failed to "read the room" and expressed a haughtiness and stubbornness that didn't serve him, his country, or the world, well. Except for Putin and Xi who are loving it, of course.
Ukraine's Zelensky believes he can salvage relationship with US | The Times of Israel
Some folks (like LIndsey Graham, long a source or echo of some of the worst American foreign policy ideas) are now saying that Ukraine will have to switch presidents in order to get anything done with the US. That might or might not be true. Lots of relationships have been patched up after big fights, though the egos involved with this one will make it additionally challenging.
Americans aren't great at paying attention to what's going on beyond our shores but at this point we should be watching Europe. Europe probably could supply Ukraine with weapon systems necessary to fight Russia. Manpower is a different question and European governments and especially citizens won't want their citizens dying in Ukraine. And of course that's a nonstarter with Trump and with the American people as well. But for Zelensky to bet on beating (whatever that now means) or reaching a draw with Putin without significant American support would be like betting a lot on pocket 9s when there's a king on the board and someone else raising the bet; sure you could win the hand but you're not in the lead. In short, Zelensky should behave as if he needs the US which means not only finding a way to heal the rift with Trump that came from Friday's meeting but also not appearing to side with Europe in a way that appears to be snubbing or insulting the US.
Some are speculating that Ukraine might sign a minerals deal with Europe rather than with the US but that's hard for me to see. Europe does not have the tech manufacturing to use those rare earth minerals that Ukraine might produce and they probably also don't have the geologists and engineers to develop the resources.
The different approaches by the US and by Europe toward Ukraine will exacerbate the tension between the US and the EU. Some of that will be bad for the US but not all. We will lose some global influence due to being an unreliable ally but we might save quite a lot of money by forcing the Europeans to start spending more on their own defense.
I suspect that Putin will be even less likely to engage in a real ceasefire or peace agreement backed just by Europe than he would one backed by the US, and clearly the Europeans see it that way too because they're looking to present a plan to Trump rather than to Putin: Europe Aims to Forge a Peace Plan for Ukraine - WSJ
A lot of interesting info here: Politics latest: 'I am exchangeable for NATO membership', Zelenskyy tells Sky News after PM announces missile plan for Ukraine | Politics News | Sky News
This is a shockingly complex situation. Anyone who tells you with high confidence what will happen next is an idiot or a liar. All you can do in these situations is think of as many possible paths as possible and plan contingencies for each.
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Here's a summary of my original take on the events...a take that a few folks have emailed to say "is holding up well", which I appreciate. You should be able to click on the tweet to open it and see the whole thread (a total of 10 tweets.)