Thurs Blogcast: Jake Lang, pardoned J6 rioter; Federal budget; Issac Newton

Never forget, and never again

Hamas killed them all. (This is true even if Hamas's claim, that I don't believe, that an Israeli air strike killed them, is true because Hamas kidnapped them and intentionally put them in harm's way.) Every member of Hamas must be eliminated and the group must never return to power in Gaza (or anywhere else).

Just One Thing: Trump is treading dangerously

My tweet from last night is below but it might be easier if I just post the text here:

I know that Trump supporters are at least as allergic to criticism of their guy as any supporters of any president in recent history, but it must be said that Trump's statements in recent hours saying that Zelenskyy is a dictator and that Ukraine started the war are unhinged, insane, borderline-evil, and harmful to US strategic interests.

Adding that to his insanity suggesting that a president who is "saving the country" (who decides that?!?) is de facto always acting legally, and now within just hours we have this man demonstrating everything that so many Americans -- including people who voted for him -- were afraid of. It's interesting to see quite a few listeners -- and my wife -- who were rather enthusiastic Trump voters telling me that they're pretty worried right now. I'd call it a statistically significant sample size.

And most of those people are NOT on Twitter/X so if you get all your political vibes here you might miss it and think his support is as strong as it was 2 weeks ago. I think he's still stronger than he was in his first term but he's working hard to change that.

I say this as someone who wants him to succeed in things like tax reform and massively cutting the federal budget and deficit. He needs to get back to something close to sanity or the GOP will get wrecked in the next elections and Trump will not get anything done in his last 2 years in office...and maybe longer if congressional Republicans start to think that Trump is an anchor instead of a buoy going into the 2026 elections. It's hard to imagine Republicans moving away from Trump right now, but self-preservation is the strongest incentive of any politician and it won't take many of them to make Trump a lame duck less than two years in, even with a supposed majority.

He's in VERY dangerous territory right now. And, again, while I don't trust Trump because of exactly what he's doing now, it doesn't mean I hate or even dislike him. I want him to succeed. I just believe he's on a path that's very treacherous for himself, his party, and the country.

One more thing: It's been a short time and I wouldn't read too much into it yet, but Trump's approval ratings are falling. He won't like to see that so maybe it will cause him to rethink some things if it continues. And it will definitely cause some Congressional Republicans (but only some) to push back, at least a little, on Trump's worst instincts. Again, to be clear, as a populist not all of his instincts are bad. It's just that good and bad ones are basically accidents because there's no real underlying principle, just slogans like MAGA that mean whatever the speaker and listener want them to mean. For example, you can argue that it would "make America great again" to side strongly with Ukraine or to get Europe to do more. (You can't honestly argue that siding with Russia, as Trump is doing, benefits America.) You can argue that unilaterally lowering tariffs would make America great again, though of course Trump is not making that case. My point here isn't the policy but rather than populists have no principles. Eventually the American people figure that out and dump them.

Trump's Job Approval Rating at 45%; Congress' Jumps to 29%

One more thing: I was angry when I replied...and I wouldn't change a thing

This guy, a Boulder County Republican who ran for office, posted this tweet when I said Trump should not have called Zelenskyy a dictator.

I stand by my response even though I admit being really pissed off by Milliman's tweet:

Today's Guests

UPDATE (AFTER THE INTERVIEW):

A listener found information that I should have found: Lang's trial was delayed repeatedly by his own attorneys. I don't know whether Lang wanted to stay inside so he could call himself a political prisoner, or if it was otherwise part of a particular psychology he clearly has about himself that I will let you determine for yourself rather than characterizing it here, but it's hard (impossible) to complain about not getting a speedy trial when you keep intentionally delaying the trial. Also, while some of the treatment he got while in prison sounds overtly and overly degrading, it also doesn't sound entirely like what I'd call "solitary confinement" if he had the ability to talk to others. I'm not saying the treatment was right and certainly not easy, but also not what I expected to hear. Capitol riot: NY man jailed since 2021 seeks another trial delay

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This oughta be interesting: Jake Lang outed himself on social media as the guy seen in this picture from the riots at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. I mean the guy in the center with the mask, the plastic shield (apparently stolen from law enforcement) and an aluminum baseball bat.

Exclusive | NY man pardoned for attacking cops during Jan. 6 Capitol riot eyes political run

NY man busted for alleged role in Capitol riot after outing self

After alerting the public to who he was and his role on Jan 6, he was arrested, imprisoned...and pardoned by Donald Trump.

He calls the prison a gulag, calls himself and others "political prisoners" and (along with others) is suing the federal government for big money. Jake was in what he calls solitary confinement for 900 days.

He is now the founder of Federal WatchDog.

Mike Murphy is Senior VP and Chief of staff for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

We'll discuss the continuing resolution showdown and other major legislative efforts regarding the federal budget, taxes, the deficit, etc, and try to better the fiscal policy challenges facing the new administration and Congress.

GOP’s confusing budget battle continues (Semafor.com)

This won’t happen but I like the conversation: Hegseth wants Pentagon to cut 8% from defense budget for each of the next 5 years - CBS News

Other Stuff

Not surprising in the Nanny State (or City) of Denver: New Denver ordinance limiting new gas station construction passes - CBS Colorado What interests me is how this appears to bar construction even of gas stations that had already received approvals. That's probably (or at least possibly) illegal.

Two ideas with some political appeal, esp the second one, but bad economics:

Trump's plan to eliminate income taxes on Social Security benefits would help high-income households, report finds (This point is obvious. Low-income folks on Social Security pay little or no income tax already so getting rid of tax on Social Security is a bigger and bigger win as the recipients' incomes are higher and higher.)

This next one, a "DOGE divident" actually has legit initial political appeal but even that is limimted and economically it’s not smart, for a few reasons: First, given the inflation caused by the last "stimmy checks" (though those were funded by the Fed monetizing the debt and the Treasury printing new money), the public will be at least a bit resistant even to free money and the backlash will be ENORMOUS if it causes inflation to spike again. Second, by paying out the money instead of returning it to the Treasury, it would effectively be a form of additional federal borrowing; after all the debt and deficit would be lower without the "dividend". And third, there will be HUGE political pressure on Trump to distribute at least some of the money to people who didn't pay any income taxes, and separately to return to high-income taxpayers a lower percentage of a "dividend" than they paid of federal income tax revenue; in other words, this has a 99% chance of becoming an income redistribution program. Oh, it would have to get through Congress and that's also impossible without significant Dem support which would ONLY come if the biggest taxpayers were punished that those who paid little or nothing get rewarded.

Elon Musk says he'll look into $5,000 DOGE dividend checks for Americans

Trump Adds Support For DOGE Dividend; Here’s Why He Might Do It

Meanwhile, anybody can make a mistake but this isn't the kind of mistake you'd expect from these "geniuses." They REALLY have to be careful to seem to the public that they're competent and in control rather than chaotic and reckless: DOGE team's "wall of receipts" shows errors in tallying billions in savings - CBS News

Quite remarkable (in a bad way): In letter to Mayor Mike Johnston, Denver restaurants say they're now watching downtown 'fall completely apart' | Business | denvergazette.com

Another example, reminding me somewhat of stuff DOGE is rooting out, of an idea that might be well-intended but is far far too expensive. (And to be clear, I think lots of stuff DOGE is rooting out wasn't even well-intended. Insurers to Trump: Stop Biden's Medicare and Medicaid obesity drug proposal

Let private citizens and non-profits, rather than taxpayers, fund this if it needs to be funded: About 160 immigrant children could lose attorneys with Trump order

Related, and more important due to the scale: Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Ends Taxpayer Subsidization of Open Borders – The White House

Yet another “why wasn’t this already done?” bill: Colorado lawmakers eye term limits, transparency for PERA board - The Colorado Sun

Of course it was illegal: U.S. appeals court blocks Biden SAVE plan for student loans

Trump should do everything he can to make sure that courts don't rule his government-reducing actions to be illegal. Legal or not, stories like this have political impact that's bad for Republicans but should be manageable: National Park ranger fired from "dream job" on Valentine's Day pens emotional viral letter: "Things are not ok" - CBS News

Local connections:

Cuts Make Colorado Less Protected Against Wildfires and Increase Costs Further | Colorado Governor Jared Polis

More than 150 Forest Service workers lose jobs in Trump cuts

To be clear here: Sure, I feel badly for anybody who loses a job. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't fire people who are doing jobs at taxpayer expense that don't need to be done, or don't need to be done by the federal government. Our government is FAR too big, does far too much, and costs far too much. As I said on the air yesterday, I think the degree of waste and abuse and fraud exceeds what even huge skeptics of gov't spending (Iike me) had expected. Truly shocking.

Today's Video

Thanks to my son for telling me about this. All you really need is the first 90 seconds or so...until Tyson says the number 26.

Ross Kaminsky