Just One Thing: Will Election Day become Election Week or Election Month?
I have no idea whether this election will be as close as the polls currently suggest, but a couple of things to keep in mind for two weeks from tomorrow. First, Pennsylvania may take a long time to find out because they can’t even start preparing their mail-in votes to be counted until election day. It’s likely that Pennsylvania will start off with numbers that look stronger for Trump and then pick up Democrat votes as the mail-in votes get counted. In 2016, AP called the election the next day. In 2020, it wasn’t for four days. And of course in 2000 with the Florida hanging chads and the Supreme Court involvement, it took 6½ weeks. And that’s without the inevitable deluge of lawsuits. Don’t be surprised if Election Day turns into Election Week or Month.
Six-Chart Sunday (#39) – The Nine Week Slog (substack.com)
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Today's Guests
Carl Allen is a data analyst and the author of a very interesting (and quite nerdy) book entitled "The Polls Weren't Wrong "
And we'll talk about that question: Were polls "wrong" in 2016 and 2020 and what does "wrong" even mean in the context of polling? And what's the difference between a poll and a forecast?
Speaking of polling and forecasting: Trump overtakes Harris in DDHQ/The Hill election forecast
Walter Olson is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute’s Robert A. Levy Center for Constitutional Studies. We'll discuss Ranked-Choice Voting, and especially some of the most common complaints about it, which tend to come from the right.
More here as well in this Cato Daily Podcast: Dispelling the Fear and Loathing over Ranked-Choice Voting | Cato Institute
Why Conservatives Shouldn't Fear Ranked Choice Voting | Cato Institute
This is long and detailed: Walter Olson participates in a panel, “Dispelling Misinformation About Ranked-Choice Voting and Ballot Question 3,” sponsored by Vote Nevada | Cato Institute
Interesting to see list of opponents…they are generally people I want to oppose: Proposition 131 — Colorado’s open primary and ranked-choice voting ballot measure — would be a seismic change for state elections. Here’s how | AspenTimes.com
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Other Stuff
Given how much money Dominion Voting Systems has won from lawsuits against individuals and TV networks that defamed the company, this seems like a very risky thing for the richest man in the world to say/do:
Pennsylvania - Setting the Record Straight - Dominion Voting Systems
Denver City Council to take up a bunch of bills regarding redevelopment around Ball Arena (formerly the Pepsi Center), Elitch Gardens, etc: Denver City Council to consider $9.5 million in spending for healthy food for kids, rental assistance | Government | denvergazette.com
He’s not dead yet…let’s hope the gov’t doesn’t kill a man who might be innocent and is certainly not “guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.” Texas junk science law to get review over Roberson’s execution case | AP News
This is a very concerning leak from a very important organization. U.S. Investigates Intelligence Leak About Israel’s Plans for Attacking Iran - WSJ
Pro-Iranian account leaks alleged U.S. intel on Israel's attack plans (axios.com)
This is also concerning: Hezbollah drone targets Netanyahu's Caesarea home; he says 'agents of Iran tried to assassinate me' | The Times of Israel
Israel attacks Hezbollah's bank: Israel strikes banks in Lebanon to hit Hezbollah's finances (nbcnews.com)
Here's a fun story: Is Hunter Enis the richest former Broncos quarterback? | Sports Coverage | denvergazette.com
How much will your TABOR refund be this time (which is probably the last large TABOR refund for a long time, maybe for ever)? TABOR refund amounts announced for 2025 | FOX31 Denver (kdvr.com)
It's hard not to get frustrated with these do-gooder ideas that end up (predictably, I'd suggest) not meeting their goals while costing taxpayers or ratepayers a lot. Denver made a big change to waste pickup. It’s not quite working yet (denverite.com)
Did Russia almost buy two elections? Moldova referendum: Provision results show thin margin for EU membership (bbc.com)
Over at Eurointelligence (which is better than average but not always right), they think that the polls showing a much bigger lead for "Yes" on Moldova joining the EU were "over-optimistic forecasts" spread by an eager media.
It's also hard not to get frustrated at studies that don't focus enough on the impact of the homeless on the rest of us, in ways that go beyond just a crime statistic: Homeless camp sweeps don't cut crime long term, study finds (coloradosun.com)
I get that this is bad, but should it be a felony? Man arrested for animal cruelty after dog found tied to post in floodwaters ahead of Hurricane Milton - ABC News (go.com)
Why are Russians so accident-prone? Former Russian oil executive Mikhail Rogachev found dead in Moscow (telegraph.co.uk)
When I read about this, I thought it was a joke...but it's real: POLISH • POTATOES (perfume) (bohobocoperfume.us)
A couple of thoughts: First, this doesn't surprise me. Second, if you spank your kid now someone (maybe your kid) will call a government agent to your home. Negative effects of childhood spanking may be overstated: study (nypost.com)
Trump worked at McDonalds: Trump works briefly at McDonald's - Live Updates - POLITICO
Might as well believe in unicorns too: World fails first review of COP renewable energy goal – POLITICO
Today's Videos
When I was a kid, my dad had a lamp that you would turn on and dim and turn off by touching the body of the lamp. So, scientifically, this isn't surprising but it's kinda fun: Polish firm launches potato-scented perfume | Notes From Poland
This is one of the greatest home-exterior displays I've ever seen