Just One Thing: Bettors loving Trump
I keep a pretty close eye on election betting markets, which are new newly legal in the United States but big offshore markets have been operating for a while. The last week or so has been fascinating. Political polling has shown slight improvement for Trump. Still behind by about 2% nationally, but now slightly ahead, and I mean by less than 1%, in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and about tied in Wisconsin. But betting odds have moved massively with an average of odds from several sites going from a tie just 4 days ago to a 7 points Trump advantage. That’s really massive. It’s his biggest lead since she got in the race. I don’t know if it will be right, but at the moment, the momentum is definitely with Donald Trump.
Election Betting Odds by Maxim Lott and John Stossel
Kamala v. Trump: Who wins the Presidential Election? | Kalshi
The most pro-Trump market is the biggest market: Polymarket | Presidential Election Winner 2024
Some thoughts on the presidential race:
One More Thing: A good choice for the Nobel Prize for Peace
I was concerned that they'd give it to some functionally antisemitic group or person, someone calling for "ceasefire", etc.
This year's Nobel Peace Prize goes to a Japanese organization comprised of people who survived the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and works to prevent future use of nuclear weapons. I think it's a worthy choice in a war-torn world, not least with Vladimir Putin threatening the use of tactical nukes against Ukraine.
Nihon Hidankyo – Facts – 2024 - NobelPrize.org
Japan's Nihon Hidankyo wins 2024 Nobel Peace Prize | Reuters
Today's Guests
Jeff Hurd is the Republican candidate in the 3rd Congressional District. It's one of the two key races in Colorado this year (the other being CD8) and it's the only Dem opportunity to take a seat that's currently held by a Republican. His Democratic opponent, Adam Frisch, raised an immense amount of money when it seemed that the opponent would be the current representative, Lauren Boebert. But Lauren has moved to CD4 and Jeff is the GOP candidate in this GOP-leaning district. Jeff has my strong endorsement and I encourage folks who live in CD3 to get out and vote.
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) joins the show. I likely will NOT ask him about the presidential race but instead will focus on key Senate races and other key races around the country, the Middle East, and maybe some questions about the future of the GOP. Tom is a former US Army infantry officer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as with the extremely prestigious Old Guard at Arlington National Cemetery. He also graduated from Harvard and Harvard Law, which we won’t hold against him
Home | Senator Tom Cotton (senate.gov)
Jimmy Sengenberger is an investigative journalist at the Denver Gazette and occasional fill-in radio host (including filling in for me). He's reporting for iHeart from the Trump rally in Aurora (or at least it's technically Aurora though most people wouldn't really call the Gaylord Hotel out by the airport "Aurora".)
Stormy Daniels' Colorado show coincides with Trump rally | Arts & Entertainment | denvergazette.com
CU Physics Professor Paul Beale joins the show to help us understand this year's Nobel Prize in Physics which was awarded to two pioneers in the world of artificial intelligence. Now I understand why AI stuff might win a Nobel Prize but it's not entirely obvious why it's in the Physics category.
Other Stuff
This is interesting in the sense that it seems like really dumb politics to say this out loud, given that the Dems' favorite line against Trump is "threat to democracy" based on not accepting the outcome of an election. Some Democrats won't commit to certifying a Trump victory (axios.com)
Are you the only one tired of hearing ads for Trump sneakers and watches and whatever else? Now this: China-Hating Trump Printed His Branded Bibles There (inc.com)
Ugh. The grift is sickening: State Education Department Seeks Bids for 55,000 Classroom Bibles - Oklahoma Watch
Former Rep Ken Buck comes out in favor of Prop 131 (open primaries and Ranked Choice Voting in general elections): Reforming our electoral process will revive conservative principles - Washington Examiner
This is heavy for a Friday, but it's a must, including the video at the end
60 Minutes edited Kamala Harris's answer about Benjamin Netanyahu's relationship with the US to make her sound less idiotic although the show is claiming it was their typical edits for length.
It's stupid of Trump to call for CBS to lose its broadcast license. Right-leaning networks frequently edit Harris (and other Dems) in ways to make them look bad. That's the kind of dictatorial comment from Trump that scares people about him. He would prefer to be a dictator than a president, it seems. Still, CBS should have known better and found a way to run the interview at full length, at least posting it on YouTube openly, and also to note explicitly in the broadcast version that it had been edited for length. (Even if they were editing it to help Kamala, who desperately needs the help.)
Horrendous: 12 rescued from underground mine in Colorado after fatality during tour - CBS News
Sure, it's better than some months ago but the cost to taxpayers is still infuriating: Denver no longer tracking new immigrant arrivals | Immigration | denvergazette.com
Funny. If your opponent won't debate you, create an AI copy of him: Exclusive: Virginia congressional candidate creates AI chatbot as debate stand-in for incumbent | Reuters
At some points, do the victims seem so gullible that you kinda want the scammers to get away with it? Indian Couple Scam Victims of $4 Million with “Israel-Made Time Machine” Capable of Reversing Aging (odditycentral.com)
Boy is foreign policy complicated: Exclusive: Iran’s Secret Warning to U.S. Allies: Don’t Help Israel, or You’re Next - WSJ
Today's Video
Now that's a proud dog