Happy (Jewish) New Year
Tonight begins Rosh Hashanah, the two-day long Jewish New Year.
It's quite an interesting holiday and not like the completely non-religious January 1 New Year that's celebrated around the world. Rosh Hashanah 101 | My Jewish Learning
And obviously with what's going on around the world, this is a time of serious thought by Jews everywhere, especially in Israel.
This is from an orthodox Jewish group: What Is Rosh Hashanah? - The Jewish New Year - Chabad.org
I wish you all shana tova and chag sameach. And so does the prime minister of the UK:
Just One Thing: Reiterating my take on the VP debate
I said this all yesterday but restating it here in brief today:
JD Vance won Tuesday’s debate by “reintroducing” himself to voters as a completely different person from how he has sometimes come across, and what the “mainstream media” amplified, as a younger uber-Trumpy attack dog. Instead, he came across as calm, quiet, friendly, sharp, well-mannered, even-tempered, and caring. Tim Walz on the other hand seemed nervous and while he didn’t do terribly, he was outmatched by Vance. If it were a 15-round boxing match, Walz won a round or two but lost the bout in a unanimous decision. Betting odds moved from a small Harris edge to a tie on sites I watch . One never thinks of VP debates as changing a race. I wonder if we might look back after the election and say this one did.
Israel doing what must be done
Judge Chutkan's impropriety in unsealing evidence of Trump's impropriety
I don't like thinking that judges are corrupt and motivated by politics but that faith has been shaken by the NY "hush money" case and repeatedly by Tanya Chutkan, the federal judge in Trump's Jan 6 case. Before I go further, I want to point out to people who might be new to my thoughts that I believe Trump's behavior on January 6, 2021 was unethical, almost treasonous, and disqualifying. But the "almost" there is important and I have significant doubt that what he did was illegal.
When Special Prosecutor Jack Smith (whom another federal judge has ruled was not lawfully appointed to his position, a decision which may be overturned on appeal) filed the initial federal charges against Trump about his Jan 6 activities and related efforts to "steal the 2020 election", some of the activities related to functions that were clearly covered in the Supreme Court's recent immunity decision. So Smith got a superseding indictment, eliminating references to those things. That indictment was recently filed under seal with Judge Chutkan. Yesterday, the judge unsealed the material, giving Smith a propaganda coup against Trump. It's entirely unclear to me why Chutkan would release prejudicial material a month before a presidential election when there is precisely a 0% chance of a trial or even any important pre-trial activity before the election. Indeed, if Trump wins the election, the case is likely to go away entirely. (You might disapprove of that but I'm not looking to debate that; just pointing out how it seems improper to unseal a new indictment at this time.) It sure seems like Chutkan putting her thumb on the political scale and I don't like it at all.
I note that Smith's first argument in the new indictment is that Trump's claim that all of his Jan 6 activities (and other acts related to trying to overturn the election) were "official", meaning he has absolute immunity for them. I think Trump is wrong in that argument, which is not to say he might not have some degree of presumed immunity for some of the acts. But remember, running a political campaign, running for re-election, these things are generally NOT official acts. Being a candidate is not included in the constitutionally protected prerogatives of the presidency.
Separate from the propriety of the judge unsealing the indictment now, the indictment itself is full of stuff that looks VERY bad for Trump. Whether or not the behavior is illegal is something I don't have a strong opinion about though I suspect it's mostly not illegal. BUT it was terrible and a reprehensible abandonment of his oath of office. I really do think the guy tried to steal the 2020 election and, in a sort of insanely cynical way, he tried to do it by claiming the winner stole the election.
Prosecutors say Trump 'resorted to crimes' after losing 2020 election | AP News
Jack Smith lays out his case against Trump in vivid detail - POLITICO
Jack Smith Lays Out New Evidence in Trump’s Jan. 6 Case - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (may need subscription)
The full 165-page document is here: gov.uscourts.dcd_.258148.252.0.pdf (d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net)
Today's Guests
Steve Moore is a great long-time friend of mine, founder of the Club for Growth, long time economist at the Cato Institute and then the Heritage Foundation. He's also been an economic advisor to Donald Trump for some years. Trump sometimes listens (like on taxes) and sometimes doesn't (like on tariffs.)
Steve has a new book out lauding Trump's economic record and explaining what he hopes will happen (economically) if there is a second Trump term: The Trump Economic Miracle: And the Plan to Unleash Prosperity Again
Admiral James Stavridis was, among other things, NATO Supreme Allied Commander. He's a best-selling author of both fiction and non-fiction, his latest (which isn't yet released but will be soon) is: Restless Wave – Admiral James Stavridis (admiralstav.com)
We'll discuss Israel's and America's options in dealing with Iran and the risks of a wider war in the Middle East.
Biden says he opposes potential Israeli strike against Iran nuclear program (axios.com)
Other Stuff
Remarkable: View from space: Millions without power from Hurricane Helene - Axios Charlotte
Betting on elections is now legal in the US: Political bettors hit the jackpot as court clears election markets for comeback - POLITICO
Federal appeals court allows betting on elections, ruling against government (thehill.com)
Places that will be trading will include:
Home | IBKR ForecastTrader (interactivebrokers.com)
Not sure what's happening here right now but these were the guys who brought, and won, the lawsuit against the government: Invest or hedge with our election-related - Start with $10 (kalshi.com) I note that the firm is regulated by the CFTC and remains so. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission took the ridiculous view that betting on elections could somehow corrupt the elections. A panel of judges ruled somewhat against that paranoid view and for individual economic freedom. In short, the judges ruled that the CFTC had just not given a credible argument but also didn't say that the CFTC can't try again to shut down these markets. Kalshi will remain regulated by the CFTC which will probably give them a certain level of credibility with Americans who might want to speculate on our elections.
Pardon the excitement-based f-bomb in the tweet below from the founder of Kalshi:
Don Boudreaux on the ILA strike: Open Letter to Harold Daggett - Cafe Hayek
Another great ruling by a judge: Judge blocks California deepfakes law that sparked Musk-Newsom row - POLITICO
And here's the parody video that was the centerpiece of the case to overturn Gavin Newsom's assault on the First Amendment
Some stories I didn't get to yesterday:
Mule trains are back: Mules deliver aid to North Carolina after Hurricane Helene closed roads (axios.com)
If you're on Medicaid Part D, you may be pleasantly surprised at your premium this year. Just wait until next year. A Medicare Election Bribe for Seniors - WSJ
For some reason, the Korean car brands, even though they're making great cars, remain much too easy to steal or hack: Millions of Vehicles Could Be Hacked and Tracked Thanks to a Simple Website Bug | WIRED
Hey Sneakerheads, this would be a fascinating case study for a business school: Nike’s Sales Are in a Funk. It’s Working Off a Jordan Hangover. - WSJ
Hard to imagine: China’s Housing Glut Collides With Its Shrinking Population - WSJ
Lightening it up for a few minutes, one of the great April Fools Jokes of all time: Spaghetti-tree hoax - Wikipedia
THIS:
Will this force the NCAA to make better rules, rules that actually protect its female athletes?
USU joins list of forfeits protesting transgender player on San Jose volleyball team (kutv.com)
From the governor of Utah:
At this point I'm just confused. What are they saying I should eat first? Could having your pudding FIRST stop you from overeating? That's just one example of the theories about what order you should eat in that are now taking social media by storm | Daily Mail Online
Today's videos
Sure, why not?
Hall & Oates-style song about Kamala Harris' debating skills