Just One Thing: An election that's "tight as a tick"
At the moment, our election is truly a coin flip. Nate Silver, one of the better-known analysts of polls and providers of election odds basically has the election a tie after showing a bigger Trump lead last week, but it’s because of adjustments he made to his model rather than because of new data…and that’s worth a conversation in itself. Now, the NY Times/Siena College poll, one of the best respected polls out there, has Donald Trump up by one point nationally among likely voters. As the Times notes, it’s Trump’s first lead in a major survey in about a month. Of course it’s just one poll. It could be wrong and things will change, with VERY much at stake in Tuesday night’s debate but at the moment it couldn’t be closer.
(32) Six-Chart Sunday (#33) – Photo Finish Brewing (substack.com)
New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August – DNyuz
Polymarket betting market odds have been stable for about a week with a slight advantage for Trump: Polymarket | Presidential Election Winner 2024
And at Betonline.AG, odds have moved over about a week from a small Harris advantage to a small Trump advantage: Online Sportsbook & Live Betting Odds at BetOnline Sportsbook
Today's Guests
Justin Balthrop is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Kansas. He's a coauthor of an interesting paper about sports gambling. Since I very much enjoy sports betting -- but always for small dollar amounts -- I'm looking forward to his take, including to the possibility that many folks aren't able to gamble within limits that are reasonable for them.
Justin Balthrop | School of Business (ku.edu)
Sports gambling: Study says betting impacts hurts retirement (wesh.com)
NFL season projected to generate $35 billion in legal sports bets (pressrundown.com)
Christian Toto is the proprietor of the Hollywood in Toto podcast and website. He's one of the nation's few non-leftist movie and media critics and an all around good dude.
Here's the Apple Podcasts link but you can find Hollywood in Toto at many podcast providers: Hollywood in Toto with Christian Toto Podcast Series - Apple Podcasts
UPDATE to discuss with Mayor Coffman: Aurora apartment complex taken over by Tren de Aragua must sell (nypost.com)
Aurora Mayor Mike Coffman has been on a fact-finding mission regarding the actual extent of gang "takeovers" of residential buildings in his city. 9News is not so subtly criticizing the mayor for what appear to be changing positions. As for me, I'd like to know what he's learned because some folks are saying Aurora basically looks like Escape From New York and others are saying there's little to no problem at all. I also want to ask the mayor just what the role of the city manager is in all this since Aurora is a city -- as many might not realize -- where most of the day-to-day power in operating the city lies with the city manager, and not the mayor. (It's called a "weak mayor" system and some have wondered whether Aurora should stick with that system.)
Aurora mayor changes messaging on Venezuelan gang activity | 9news.com
Other Stuff
A lot of second-guessing here, but that’s not to say that second-guessing shouldn’t happen: Mother's warning to Georgia school about suspect raises questions about moments before shooting | AP News
I don't dislike electric cars. Why would I? They're very cool technology. What I dislike is government trying to force people to buy them by forcing automakers to make them, and automakers going along with prior promises to abandon internal combustion engines by 2030 or so, when such a goal was not just unrealistic but basically impossible for any large automaker that isn't all-electric from the get-go, like Tesla. Soooo many automakers are now backing away from those promises. The latest: Volvo Backtracks on All-Electric Lineup as EV Market Challenges Pile Up - WSJ
Most states with early voting start in October but some begin in September -- which is way too early -- and some begin sending absentee ballots out ridiculously early. In fact, North Carolina started mailing absentee ballots last week. Pennsylvania's early voting starts next week. These are both states that are currently looking like critical toss-ups in the 2024 election which makes it particularly annoying that their citizens can vote so far in advance of election day when it's not just possible, but probable, that information will emerge that will change the minds of at least some voters. I realize that the federal government may not tell the states how to run elections, including when they can start mailing or accepting ballots. But for the sake of voters making the best-informed decisions possible, I encourage states to never start any form of early voting before October, and preferably the middle of October. Best of all would be that people can't and don't vote until Election Day, or at least no more than a week before Election Day. This Election Month stuff is nonsense and not good for our republic.
All States' Early Voting Dates Chart | U.S. Vote Foundation (usvotefoundation.org)
One new Michelin-star restaurant in CO this year: MICHELIN Guide Colorado gains new Star in year two :: Michelin North America, Inc. (michelinmedia.com)
Mental toughness: Police investigate after Dolphins' Tyreek Hill briefly detained near Hard Rock Stadium - CBS Miami (cbsnews.com)
Interesting comments to this tweet:
I’m all for tax cuts but they MUST be combined with even greater spending cuts…and neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris has ever expressed interest in that. Harris, Trump tax-cut promises make this campaign a season of giving (axios.com)
Even people as bad at foreign policy as the Biden team eventually figure it out: Doubts grow in White House about presenting new Gaza deal terms (axios.com)
I hate it when people who are around my age pass away. RIP, Walt Ehmer: Waffle House CEO Walt Ehmer dies at 58 | AP News
I think this is part of the reason that Trump’s base is so resilient, even if alone it’s not enough to win the election: WATCH: Top DOJ Spokesman Calls Trump Cases 'Perversion of Justice' on Hidden Cam (breitbart.com)
I owe you these from the other day, all really on the same subject. They're a good follow-up to our conversation with Charlie Gasparino:
Ford is latest high-profile American company to tap brakes on DEI (usatoday.com)
Business Backs Away From DEI - WSJ
I promise you this is true: Kristen and I once saw a cassowary walking (he was walking; we were driving) along a road in the Daintree rain forest in northeastern Australia. Literally a once-in-a-lifetime sighting, I suspect. ‘World’s deadliest chick’ hatches in Cotswolds bird park (telegraph.co.uk)
Just like American Democrats, the British Labour Party will tax absolutely everything they can think of: Wes Streeting: Private school parents can't complain about tax on fees (telegraph.co.uk)
Like most critics, River Page hated the new movie about Ronald Reagan called, shockingly, Reagan. But the movie has one of the biggest gaps I've ever seen between the critics and the audiences, with 20% support among the former and 98% among the latter. If you've seen it, send me an email at ross@iheartmedia.com and tell me what you thought.
‘Reagan’ Is a Terrible Movie. But Not Because It’s Conservative. | The Free Press (thefp.com)
Reagan (2024) | Rotten Tomatoes
Don't do this:
Today's Videos
Following up on the idiots who thought that writing a fraudulent check to yourself, depositing it, and then taking money out of an ATM before it bounced, was a "glitch" in the system that they could take advantage of without repercussions...
That Chase “money glitch” hack on Tiktok was just fraud | Vox
These have "the f-word"...examples of the sorts of dimwit criminals who tried to defraud a bank and will get what's coming to 'em
One other way to express the situation to those guys
Is it true that Muhammad Ali had a boxing match in Colorado?
Yes, sort of