Just One Thing: Who is the "Change Candidate"?
The great political analyst Bruce Mehlman (subscribe to his free Substack!) asks an important question about the 2024 presidential election: Who is the “change candidate”? Americans love voting for change, and I love that about Americans because it shows a fundamental distaste for government. Bruce says 10 of the 12 federal elections this century resulted in a change in the party controlling the House, Senate and/or White House. With inflation being the main issue and the border not far behind, you’d think that the obvious change candidate would be Donald Trump. But Trump might actually be hampered this time around by being a former president. It’s hard for him to REALLY claim to be the outsider, the insurgent. Could the cackling incompetent Kamala who’s been a senator and is the incumbent vice president actually come across more as the candidate of change?
Six-Chart Sunday (#29) – Who's the Change Candidate in 2024? (substack.com)
Today's Guest
We are going DEEP into "global macro" economics with Philipp Carlsson, Chief economist at the Boston Consulting Group, and was previously chief economist at Sanford Bernstein, talking about his fascinating new book (link just below), entitled "Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms." I will note that this is not a book for people who don't have a decent basic understanding of macroeconomics. It's not an "intro" or Econ 101 book. It's at least 201 or 301 or grad school. I'm very excited for this conversation and I'll do my best to guide Philipp (yes, 1 l and 2 p's) to "plain English" answers. Don't be shy about texting questions to me during or just before the interview at 56690.
Other Stuff
I don't believe this is true, but if it is it would be a scandal of massive proportions and an indelible black mark on Joe Biden's already miserable legacy: Did the US expose Mossad agents behind Haniyeh's death to Tehran? - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)
Better late than never: Columbia president Shafik resigns (axios.com)
My take: Let's get some university presidents with backbone and ethics. Can be women, can be various ethnicities, but must not be hired BECAUSE of those things in the absence of other absolute requirements for the job, including willingness to suspend and expel students, and fire professors (including breaking tenure where possible and necessary) who break the rules. (I went to Columbia, which is not something I say with pride anymore, though to be fair I haven't said it with pride for many years because I've long understood what an anti-Semitic anti-American anti-freedom cesspool it had become.)
The head of UCLA should go too: 'So Unimaginable and So Abhorrent': Federal Judge Orders UCLA to Stop Aiding Activists Enforcing Jew-Free Zones on Campus | National Review
Let's talk about tips. (After all, Trump and Harris are.)
I'm basically on the same page as these folks, with the caveat that taxing tips is already difficult and I don't like rules/laws that are known to be almost impossible to enforce. No Tax on Tips: Harris Steals Bad Idea from Trump | National Review
On balance I'm against not taxing tips for a variety of reasons that we'll talk about on the show.
Harris, Trump see votes in not taxing tips. Experts see trouble. - POLITICO
See the part about “double-haters”. THIS is why Trump is losing now. His numbers haven’t really moved. But undecided voters or voters who were previously likely not to vote for anybody are moving aggressively toward Harris primarily because they just can’t stand Trump as a human being, and NOT because of his policy positions. The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President | Cook Political Report
Politically in the weeds, but very important: Biden admin to spend billions to blunt spike in Medicare drug premiums - POLITICO
Gen-Z snowflakes or cruelty to fish? Was the Great Brooklyn Goldfish Heist a Rescue? Or a Robbery? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
(Text is also here, without a subscription: The fish pond story made it to the New York Times : r/BedStuy (reddit.com))
Inflation stuff:
This is why people aren’t feeling the reported lower inflation numbers, and why Trump can still win if he stays focused: Child Care, Rent, Insurance: Where Inflation Hits Hardest Now - WSJ
Inflation Slipped to 2.9% in July, Lower Than Expected (msn.com)
Denver inflation lower than the nation's...but doesn't include some items that have been increasing rapidly in price: Denver inflation slowed faster than the national rate to 1.9%. Does it feel like it? - The Colorado Sun
Trump's worst domestic policy position just got worse: Trump, in North Carolina speech, signals openness to expanding tariff plans | Nation | postguam.com
I get that this is breaking the law but maybe the fees are so crazy that the gov't has created the incentive for this behavior: Exclusive | 'Ghost' license plates cost NYC $200M a year — fueled by 'James Bond-level' gadgets: new analysis (nypost.com)
I have to try this (as an excuse to eat more chocolate): You've been eating Toblerone wrong - and people are 'mind-blown' - Mirror Online
Reminds me of this, which actually works, though it's much harder to control the amount of ketchup:
Thanks (for the weapons), Joe: The Taliban are celebrating 3 years in power, but they’re not talking about Afghans (msn.com)
$1.5 million worth of wings stolen over 19 months. That's $79K per month in wings. Let's assume $3 per pound though I bet that a school district buying in quantity would get them cheaper. That's over 26,000 pounds of wings per month. That's 850 pounds of wings a day for a year and a half. Where the heck did they go?
First: I don't like this conceptually. Second, I hate that governments are still using "COVID money" to fund stuff that has absolutely zero relevance to COVID. All unexpended COVID funds should be required to be returned to the federal government. Furthermore, starting a program with "free money" usually means the program will continue later with higher taxes or cuts to other government services. Ugh. Boulder experiments with giving cash to parents with young children - Axios Denver
Some stuff I didn't get to yesterday:
From the “this seems like bad sportsmanship” files: Russian Chess Player Accused of Poisoning Rival (newser.com)
Very much "misinformation" that Dems hate sooooo much. But not illegal. One wonders if they'll stop now that they've been caught: Harris-sponsored Google ads suggest publishers are on her side (axios.com)
Well, since the guy will likely never return to Mexico I doubt he's too worried: Mexican prosecutors consider treason charges after US jails drug lord ‘El Mayo’ Zambada | AP News
Why indeed? Why Is “Red Tape” Associated With Bureaucracy? — History Facts
That stinks...but is it a legit basis for a lawsuit? Attorneys for pet food plant in Denver respond to attempted class action lawsuit over stench | 9news.com
Today's diabetes-causing videos
The new snack at Arizona Cardinals home games this year. Per this article, it's filled with "fruity pebbles, fruit loops, marshmallows, skittles, mini m&m’s, gummy bears and sprinkles": Arizona Cardinals' new food lineup includes cotton candy burrito (arizonasports.com)
And a non-diabetes-inducing video
Imagine solving a $25K treasure hunt puzzle with your young son...awesome: ‘Feels like a dream’: Utah father and son find treasure chest with $25,000 prize | KFOR.com Oklahoma City