Kamala Harris names MN Gov Tim Walz as running mate
With a choice that wasn't even on the radar when Kamala first became the apparent Democratic nominee, she has named Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. There was a lot of chatter yesterday about how good the personal chemistry is between them. Axios reports that a lot of Walz's former colleagues in Congress were lobbying for him: Inside the “quiet diplomacy” in Congress for Tim Walz as VP (axios.com)
The upside of Walz is that he's well-liked and experienced. He has a good resume with military service and having been in Congress and now governor. All of this is a winning contract with Trump's dumb pick of JD Vance as his running mate. (I thought that Trump should pick a competent, even slightly boring, person.) The downside of Walz is that he's really really far left and it will make it harder to sell Kamala as a moderate. The problem (for Republicans) is that the media is so completely in the tank for Kamala that Walz may not be exposed except on conservative media (to folks who already are voting Republican) for what he is. Walz was the choice of the left-wing of the party, not of moderates.
A risk for Walz: Minneapolis mayor blames Gov. Walz for ignoring warnings about riots (nypost.com)
Kamala Harris Selects Progressive Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as Running Mate | National Review
I have to say I'm somewhat surprised by this choice as Pennsylvania is a must-win state and I don't know that Walz helps there...especially with the possibility of voters there feeling "jilted" if many of them were anticipating Josh Shapiro (governor of PA) to be selected. I also wonder if this is a nod by Harris to the significant levels of anti-Semitism among the Democratic base.
Just One Thing: The "carry trade" unwinds (again)
The Dow Jones fell 1000 points yesterday, or 2.6%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fared worse, and most crypto currencies were down around 10%, after being down closer to 20% early in the morning. The proximate cause of the sell-off is complex, but here’s a short version: A weak employment report last week caused the market to assume bigger and faster US interest rate cuts. That weakened the dollar versus currencies including the Japanese yen. There’s a massive trade out there, billions of dollars, of people who borrowed yen to buy US bonds so the currency move is hurting them badly. It's called the "carry trade." They ran for the exits, exacerbating the currency move, and causing them to need to raise cash by selling other stuff. It's also possible that they started taking off the carry trade to cover losses in other places, so reverse causation from what I just mentioned. Much pain yesterday. Too soon to say whether it suggests an impending American recession, though.
FYI, this type of trade happens constantly and every once in a while...maybe once a decade or so...it blows up like this.
Carry trades: A major unwinding is underway amid a stock sell-off (cnbc.com)
Political Thoughts
This is getting ugly.
For the first time since last October, the Real Clear Politics avg of national polls has Trump behind the Democrat.
Nate Silver has Harris at 53% to win though some major betting sites still have Trump as the favorite, but by MUCH less than before. Like a football team that’s gone from a 7-point favorite to a 1-point favorite.
Of course, we don’t have a national election. So…
I still think whoever wins PA wins the election. RCP avg still has Trump up in PA, but very narrowly. And none of the polls on the site have data from August so I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets a little worse for Trump. I’ll be very interested to see new polling in Michigan, AZ, NV, and GA. Esp in the aftermath of Trump’s political malpractice, insulting the Republican governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, repeatedly…even though Kemp has a much-needed ground game in GA and Kemp is much more popular than Trump.
I expect a temporary add’l bump for Harris with the VP pick today and then with the convention. Then the question becomes whether Trump is a messenger who can explain to the public how their lives will be worse, especially economically, if Harris is president. If there’s one Republican fully capable of failing to make the case because of his obsession with the past and with personal grievances, it’s Donald Trump. He’d better start getting his messaging on target. And stop saying things like how he wants to congratulate Vladimir Putin. Exactly whose vote is he winning with that?
In retrospect one thing worth noting is that even after Trump had the sympathy from getting shot and Joe Biden became known to everybody as being senile, Trump was only up 2-3 points nationally (but more than that in swing states.) A decent GOP candidate would have had a much bigger lead in those circumstances, so that was a reminder that Trump has a hard ceiling made of people who won’t vote for him no matter what. He also has a somewhat high floor, but it’s not even close to high enough to win with just the base…which is why he lost in 2020 and caused massive GOP underperformance in ever election since 2016.
I don’t like Trump and I’m not rooting for him to win…but I am rooting for Kamala to lose. Trump’s weakness will also cost the GOP House and maybe Senate seats, and potentially the House majority. Indeed, two House seats in CO could be impacted by this dynamic. (Betting odds currently favor the Dems taking back the House which would be a disaster for tax policy even if Trump were to win.)
Today's Guest
Lauren Farrell, a stay-at-home mom and small business owner, was essentially conned by a "charity" promoting adoption of orphaned African children. The story is remarkable, including how Lauren was one of the first to figure out the apparent fraud of a "charity" called 2nd Milk. Lauren has a 6-year-old biolo;gical daughter and a 2-year-old son adopted from Malawi.
The Unraveling of a Charity’s Feel-Good Story About Saving African Orphans - WSJ
Other Stuff
I suppose it matters a lot just what Iran thinks the threat is: US passes message to Iran not to escalate at 'critical moment' for Middle East | Reuters
Google loses huge anti-trust lawsuit: Google Loses Massive Antitrust Case over 'Monopolist' Search Practices | National Review
Google has an illegal monopoly on search, US judge finds | Reuters
I note that GOOG stock only dropped slightly on the news, meaning the market has either priced it in or they think Google has a decent chance of winning on appeal.
Pretty sure the word "possibly" is misleading here (and the word "may" is misleading in UNRWA's statement): Nine UNRWA staff members were possibly involved in attack on Israel, UN says | Reuters
I wonder when the Democratic Party will rid itself of these execrable anti-Semites. I actually think this one will lose her primary election TODAY. 'Squad' member Cori Bush stops short of calling Hamas a terrorist group: 'Be careful about labeling' (msn.com)
One of the best car ads ever (thanks to my son for sending): best of craigslist: 1999 Toyota Corolla - Fine AF
This oughta be interesting: Jenna Ellis, ex-Trump attorney, to cooperate in Arizona fake electors case | AP News
I agree: Josh Shapiro Has Nothing to Apologize For | National Review
Josh Shapiro said his views on the Middle East have changed since college (inquirer.com)
Here's the 31-yr-old opinion piece written by then 20-yr-old Josh Shapiro in his college newspaper: ShapiroColumn2 (1).pdf - Google Drive
He has been proven right. So what's the problem?
Both of the proposed ballot measures failed to garner enough signatures to make the ballot: Home - Protect Kids Colorado
This is the sort of thing that happens when government is so large as to be unmanageable: Taliban Gets $239 Mil in U.S. Afghanistan Aid after State Dept. Fails to Vet Awardees | Judicial Watch
How is this possible, even under the Biden administration? Scathing report reveals Biden-Harris admin has released dozens of migrants on terror watchlist into US | Fox News
According to Biden, every fee is a "junk" fee. I'm not saying I like the current situation but what is the limiting principle here in terms of how much the federal gov't can micromanage businesses?: Biden-Harris Administration Proposes Ban on Family Seating Junk Fees Charged by Airlines | US Department of Transportation
Well now we know where the cocaine sharks come from: Hurricane Debby blows $1 mn in cocaine onto Florida beach (yahoo.com)
A good read: The British Establishment Refused to Talk About Migration. Now We’re Paying the Price. | The Free Press (thefp.com)
Apparently, this Turkish target shooter is now an Olympic meme, and why not?
"Turkish John Wick" or "The Turks sent an assassin"
Give the man his hat: Judge Orders Justice Department To Return Helmet, Spear ‘QAnon Shaman’ Wore During January 6 Riot at Capitol | The New York Sun (nysun.com)
Chinese "pig butchering" scam: ‘Pig butchering’ scammers target BBC reporter
Obviously correct: US judges cleared of misconduct over Columbia clerk hiring boycott | Reuters
Today's Videos
Israel takes out a Hezbollah commander
It still seems like science fiction that the rocket boosters return to Earth
Per The Free Press: As Taiwan was beating China for Olympic gold in badminton, the Chinese cut their TV feed just as the 2nd match was ending and did not broadcast the medal ceremony.
Here are Taiwanese fans cheering the victory