Just One Thing
Yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, strategizing the best way to become Majority Leader again (which I'd be very happy to see), announced that if the final text of legislation addressing "gun violence" adheres closely to the reported framework, he would support it. That probably means a lot more than the original 10 Republicans (none of whom were facing a primary or election this year) will go along as well. McConnell Says He’ll Support Gun Control Bill That ‘Reflects’ Bipartisan Agreement | Politics | US News
As I noted on the show yesterday, I realize that many in the GOP don't want to pass anything that seems like it's related to gun control but this framework reads MUCH more like something Republicans would draft than any sort of Democratic proposal. If it passes, it would be a huge win politically for Republicans.
There will certainly be some discussion among the GOP about the "red flag law" provision but the initial description suggests that there will not be a federal red flag law. Rather just a nudge/bribe by the feds to states that implement such laws. And states can either go along or not, but even if they do a conservative state should be able to draft a law that does a reasonable job of balancing protection of life with protection of Second Amendment rights. I realize that there are some people who will continue to argue that all red flag laws are inherently unconstitutional. I think they're wrong but I do think that some, like Colorado's, can be drafted in ways which do not sufficiently protect due process and the constitution. Nevertheless, the proposed structure makes it easy for Republican incumbents to wave off criticism from their right that they voted for a red flag law. The rest of the bill is much easier for even most Republicans to swallow. Indeed for me, the biggest issue is how much it involves the federal government in all sorts of spending for school security and mental health issues, none of which are properly the province of the federal government.
So if you were voting purely pragmatically as a Republican I think you'd have to vote for this thing (if the text is like the framework description.) If you're voting only on principles of limited government, you'd have to vote against it. For those Republicans who try hard to find the right balance between the two, this is a tough vote. That said, the political upside for Republicans to remove, or at least reduce, from Democrats the ability to claim that the GOP "cares more about protecting assault rifles than protecting children" is absolutely enormous going into an election where moderate suburban voters will decide control of the House and Senate. I would also note that even those Democrats who try to attack the GOP for preventing more aggressive anti-gun measures will be somewhat constrained by the fact that they will have voted for the thing they're complaining about. So I repeat, politically this would be such a big win for Republicans that I'm surprised Democrats are going along with it.
Here's an interesting story about the genesis of the bipartisan senate discussions on a package of laws and programs to address "gun violence" which I put in quotes as a reminder that it includes suicides. Indeed, the vast majority of deaths by gun in this country are suicides. Why this time was different on guns - POLITICO
Today's Guests
Adam Jordan is the managing director of Enverus Intelligence Research. We'll talk about the Biden administration's proposed 2-year pause on solar panel tariffs and also about the explosion at Freeport LNG's natural gas export terminal in Texas which proved the point I've been making about how the export of natural gas has been driving up domestic prices.
Natural gas plummets as Freeport delays facility restart following explosion (cnbc.com)
Exclusive: Biden to waive tariffs for 24 months on solar panels hit by probe | Reuters
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Jamil Jaffer is the Founder and Executive Director of the National Security Institute and an Assistant Professor of Law and Director of the National Security Law & Policy Program at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University. We'll discuss how the ill-considered anti-trust attacks on "big tech", pushed by the far left but abetted by Sen Josh Hawley and Rep Ken Buck among other Republicans, poses a risk to our national security.
Jamil N. Jaffer - National Security Institute (gmu.edu)
Jaffer, Jamil N. | Antonin Scalia Law School (gmu.edu)
More on the subject (and other subjects) in this recent episode of Michael Morell's "Intelligence Matters" podcast: Intelligence Matters: Big Tech, Regulation & National Security: Klon Kitchen & Jamil Jaffer on Apple Podcasts
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Jim Tyrrell is executive director at Transition Network Services. We're going to discuss robocalls and why Denver's 720 area code is one of the largest origination area codes of this scourge.
Other Stuff
Joe Biden's letter to oil production and refining CEOs is disgusting. I hope they tell him to pound sand, preferably fracking sand:
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She may not be there long, but I also think Dems are making a big mistake when they say the seat will "rightfully" return to Democratic hands in the November election. That's the exact kind of "taking us for granted" that now makes Republican Mayra Flores the first-ever Mexican-born member of the House of Representatives.
Republican Mayra Flores wins special congressional election in South Texas | The Texas Tribune
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I've said a few times lately that part of what's driving up US natural gas prices (which in turn will raise electricity prices) is demand from overseas as we expand our export infrastructure. My thesis, which wasn't really in doubt because it's obviously true, was nevertheless proven over the past few days when an explosion at an LNG export terminal in Texas caused what I think was the biggest one-day drop in US natural gas prices: Natural Gas Falls 16% After Freeport LNG Says Full Restart Not Likely Until Late 2022 - MarketWatch
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Mixed picture in economic data this morning
Import prices were slightly below expectations (though I expect much of that was due to strength in the dollar)
NY area manufacturing measure was weaker than expected
Retail sales dropped a bit when a small increase was expected. Looks like much of the weakness was in autos.
Home builder sentiment lowest in two years with a particularly bad reading in current buyer traffic. Lowest in two years is still not a terrible level, but the trend isn't great. Home builder confidence falls for the sixth straight month in June - MarketWatch
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What's the most you'd pay to have lunch with Warren Buffett? If you said $3 million, then you're out of the running already.
Power Lunch with Warren Buffett to Benefit GLIDE | eBay
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Funny and gross at the same time: Parents mortified after son poops in store's display toilet (nypost.com)
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Great story about a kid that doesn't poop in a display toilet but instead does something wonderful: 16-year-old graduates UC Davis with offers from a dozen graduate schools (ktvu.com)
Today's Videos
Incredible destruction from historic flooding in Yellowstone