Is it war? And if so, how much (or how little) should it matter to Americans?
In a long, somewhat rambling, and bitter speech yesterday (which you can watch in full -- or in part -- below), Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced that he is recognizing two regions of eastern Ukraine as independent "people's republics" and is sending Russian troops to Donetsk and Luhansk "at the request" of those places to "protect" them against Ukrainian government forces. As of this writing, it's unclear whether the troop movement has happened yet on any significant scale.
Putin has surrounded much of Ukraine, by land and by sea, surely making it look like he doesn't intend to stop in the east...but he's also a master of wrong-footing his opponents and of creating "optionality", meaning he's put himself in a position where he can just as easily attack as withdraw and could potentially claim a victory to his domestic Russian audience whatever he decides.
It's worth remembering that Putin's rise to power was almost accidental. The fascinating and fateful story is worth reading: The man who helped make ex-KGB officer Vladimir Putin a president - BBC News
In July, Putin wrote (or at least posted as if he wrote) a very long "historical" argument against the independence (from Russia) of Ukraine, presaging everything that's happening now: Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ • President of Russia (kremlin.ru)
We know that Germany won't help Ukraine defend itself and we know that other than supplying some weapons the US won't either. Yes, that sucks for the Ukrainians but other than the critically important question of the best way to deter Putin from attacking a NATO ally and to deter China from thinking they can take Taiwan without US reaction, it's hard to argue for the expenditure of US blood or treasure on behalf of Ukraine. And that's before recognizing that the American public would not tolerate American "boots on the ground" in such a war.
Keeping their historic idiocy going, more Democrats than Republicans support sending US troops to Ukraine, whether to fight Russians or for other purposes. Much as with the wars in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, Democrats seem to support wars in which the US has little or no strategic interest: Americans want to support Ukraine, but not with U.S. troops | YouGov
More related links:
Biden plans to impose new sanctions on trade and financing in two pro-Moscow territories (msn.com)
Today's Guests
Dan Hoffman is a 3-time station chief for the CIA. Now retired from the spooky life, Dan is one of the true experts on the geopolitics of eastern Europe and, to the extent that anyone can be, on the thinking of Vladimir Putin. We're very fortunate to be able to have Dan on the show. Follow Dan on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/danielhoffmanDC
Craig Shirley is a historian and a long-time friend of Ronald Reagan's, giving him a particularly interesting view of the reincarnation of the would-be "evil empire". But our real topic today is Craig's new book, "April 1945: The Hinge of History." Much as Craig did with "December 1941", he gives a fascinating survey of multiple aspects of history, from culture to sports to politics to, of course, war, during a time when war was reshaping the world and the future of the United States. April 1945: The Hinge of History: Shirley, Craig. More about Craig here: About Us (shirleyandmcvicker.com)
John O'Loughlin is a political geographer at the University of Colorado. With particular expertise and experience in the former Soviet Union, John aims "to understand the motivations of people to engage in violence as well as to measure the effects of violence on people’s material lives, experiences (especially migration), and attitudes." I think you can guess what we'll be talking about.
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Today's Videos
First, Vladimir Putin explained not just why he's recognizing two regions of eastern Ukraine as independent, but why he believes Ukraine isn't even a legitimate independent country.
Second, very interesting early coverage from German network DW