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On Sunday, Jarrett Stidham will become the first quarterback in NFL history to make his first start of the season in a conference championship game or the Super Bowl.
That said, there are plenty of reasons for Broncos Country to feel optimistic about Stidham's chances of leading a comeback.
Sean Payton Sets Backup QBs Up For Success
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Nearly a half-decade ago, the Teddy Bridgewater vs. Drew Lock civil war engulfed Broncos Country, and that was only ever possible because Sean Payton has done a remarkable job of getting the most out of his backup quarterbacks.
Over the past decade, Payton has been forced to start a backup quarterback 22 different times, and has impressively posted a record of 14-8 (.636) over those games. What's even crazier is that, if you remove third-string and fourth-string quarterbacks from that rotation, his record leaps up to 13-4 (.765). That's remarkably somehow better than the 87-48 record (.644) he's posted with his starting quarterbacks over that same span.
As the cherry on top -- of those four losses, two came in the regular season's final week, in games with zero playoff implications.
Plus, the premise of Payton setting his backup quarterbacks up for success well isn't just a product of QB wins. Removing the two games from the sample that came in those meaningless spots, because the nature of resting starters makes things funky, Payton has consistently constructed a quality offense around his backup quarterback.
Over those remaining 15 games, Payton's offense produced .016 EPA per play (would rank 19th in 2025), .057 EPA per dropback (would rank 19th), and -.039 EPA per rush (would rank 11th). That's not an elite attack, but it's impressive that he's produced a consistently serviceable attack around his backups. Now, if you exclude Taysom Hill's starts from that dataset, considering how stylistically different he is from Jarrett Stidham and Bridgewater, the numbers look even better. With Stidham and Bridgewater under center, Payton's attack has generated .046 EPA per play (would rank 10th), .150 EPA per dropback (would rank 8th), and -.103 EPA per rush (would rank 26th).
If the past is any indicator, the passing game should be just fine with Jarrett Stidham at the helm this weekend.
Jarrett Stidham Isn't Afraid To "Let It Rip"
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When asked about Jarrett Stidham starting this weekend's game, Coach Payton said, "He’s going to rip it. He has a calm demeanor that suits him well," per Troy Renck of The Denver Post.
Frankly, that's exactly what this offense needs.
The Denver Broncos' attack has been at its worst this year when they've become hyper-fixated on over-conservatism. The Jets game and the first half of the Giants game, where the offense was completely stuck in the mud, or the Week 17 and 18 contests against backup quarterbacks, stand out as particularly putrid examples.
Plus, this is Conference Championship week. Save for the once-in-a-decade, extreme outlier, you're going to need your quarterback to make plays for you at this point in the postseason if you want to win it all. Among recent Super-Bowl-winning quarterbacks, even those lacking superstar billing have elevated their play to achieve the game's ultimate prize.
Nick Foles outdueled Tom Brady to get Philadelphia its first Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts played the best game of his career in the Eagles' Super Bowl victory a year ago, and Joe Flacco and Eli Manning authored some of the greatest postseason runs in NFL history to earn their rings.
Thankfully, Stidham isn't paralyzed by fear, giving the capability to make some Mile High Magic happen. Over his starting stints with the Raiders and Broncos, Stidham has thrown the ball 20-plus yards downfield on 14.8% of his attempts, which would be the third-highest rate in the NFL in 2025.
Jarrett Stidham Aced His Audition
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The preseason is often scoffed at as an indicator of future performance, and with good reason.
Some teams are playing their starters while others are playing backups, which creates a significant talent differential. Defenses are remarkably vanilla, which dramatically simplifies the game for the quarterback. Of course, the intensity of a preseason game is also starkly different from a regular-season game, let alone a conference championship.
That said, it's still a useful tool, and there are a lot of exciting moments on Stidham's preseason tape that should even be able to translate to this stage.
For starters, Stidham was named NFL Daily's 'Preseason MVP'. That's not a meaningful award, but it does demonstrate that Stidham wasn't just good this August; he was definitively exceptional. Over the two exhibition games, Stidham went 30-for-38 for 376 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions, including going 10-for-12 for 201 yards and four touchdowns on throws of 10-plus yards. He also made five big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play.
Now, Stidham isn't the second coming of Johnny Unitas, but this does indicate a high degree of understanding and comfort with the offense, which one would expect considering his three years in the system.
Also, vanilla defense or not, the throws he made to dice up the Cardinals and 49ers were objectively impressive.
Hopefully, he can recreate that play against the Patriots this weekend.