How Does Bo Nix Compare To Other Remaining Playoff QBs?

On Saturday, the Denver Broncos will embark on the quest for the franchise's fourth Lombardi trophy, but to be successful, they're going to need some excellent play from second-year quarterback Bo Nix.

How does Nix stack up against the rest of the playoff quarterbacks? Let's take a look at the numbers to find the answer.

Accuracy

If this exercise were conducted at midseason, Bo Nix would've had a strong argument to rank eighth among the eight remaining starters, but a red-hot close to the season has seen him climb the ranks.

Through Week 9, no quarterback had hurt their team more with inaccurate throws than Nix, who had left an estimated 760 yards on the field thanks to uncatchable passes. Cam Ward, who ranked second-worst, had cost Tennessee an estimated 510 yards over that same span.

Now, every quarterback is gonna miss throws, but Nix was missing throws at an alarming rate throughout the first half of the season. The league average for 'bad-throw rate' is 16.1% this season, per Pro Football Reference. Over the 11 games before the Broncos' bye week, Nix had a bad-throw rate of 18.4%, which would rank 35th out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks, as he had only two games with a better-than-average bad-throw rate. Since the bye, Nix has a bad-throw rate of just 11.6%, which would rank fourth among those 41 qualifying quarterbacks, and has had four games with a bad-throw rate that would be the best in the league if carried over a full season.

Nix has been so accurate down the stretch that, despite being subpar for nearly two-thirds of the season, he now ranks above-average in almost every accuracy metric. Among those same 41 quarterbacks, he's ninth in on-target throw rate, has the 20th-lowest bad-throw rate, and 18th in adjusted completion percentage

Ultimately, quarterbacks like Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold deserve the nod over Bo Nix in this category. Those three veteran signal-callers hold the top-three spots among the playoff field in each of the three aforementioned accuracy statistics. That said, if Nix stays on this heater, he could hang with anyone.

Decision Making

A quarterback's decision-making ability is incredibly difficult to grade without an intimate knowledge of the playbook and what's being asked of the players on any given play.

That said, there are different ways to approximate that ability. How often is the quarterback putting the ball in harm's way? How often does he create opportunities for the offense?

So far this season, Nix has been riskier than he was as a rookie, and his turnover-worthy-play rate has climbed from 1.9% to 2.8% as a result. That shouldn't be overly concerning though, because he's still making those plays at a below-average rate (the NFL average is 3.1%), and he's also started to create high-level plays at a more consistent rate, as a result of pushing that envelope. His big-time-throw rate has also climbed in his second season, from 3.5% to 4.8% (NFL average is 4.2%).

Remaining quarterbacks like C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, and Drake Maye have done a better job protecting the football, but only Maye has both a higher big-time-throw rate (4.9%) and a lower turnover-worthy-play rate (2.7%), and even then, Maye's only slightly superior to Nix in each metric.

Explosiveness

Despite the perception that Bo Nix is one of the most conservative and least explosive quarterbacks in the league, he actually compares pretty favorably to the other quarterbacks still standing in the postseason, especially when considering his aforementioned slow start.

Nix had 250 more missed yards than Cam Ward through the first nine weeks of the season because his misses regularly occurred when Denver's offense tried to stretch the field. Adjusting for drops and throwaways, Nix was completing just 40.9% of his downfield targets through Week 10, which ranked 25th out of 39 quarterbacks during that span.

As his accuracy improved, so did his lethality as a passer. Since Week 11, on deep targets, Nix has an adjusted completion percentage of 56.0% and is averaging 15.5 yards per attempt, both of which rank sixth among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, all while throwing downfield at the league's 12th-highest rate. He's also tallied three touchdowns without throwing an interception on deep throws in that span.

Now, quarterbacks like Drake Maye, Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold have been better on downfield passes over the entirety of the season, and Matthew Stafford has been the hottest of the bunch during the second half of the season, but Nix is much closer to that crop of gunslingers than many would expect.

Handling Pressure

Bo Nix is better at avoiding sacks than just about any other quarterback in the sport. Nix's pressure-to-sack rate of just 10.1% is better than any quarterback with at least 320 dropbacks this season.

Handling pressure is about more than just mitigating sacks, though. If you immediately throw the ball away into an interception anytime there's a hint of pressure, you would have a pressure-to-sack rate of 0.0%, but you would also be the NFL's worst quarterback under pressure.

To be a great quarterback under pressure, you first have to avoid the pass rush, but then you also have to create a positive play for the offense. Nix has mastered the first half of that equation, but he's still figuring out the second half, though, to his credit, he's made major strides since his rookie campaign.

As a rookie, his biggest flaw was likely his ability to play well under pressure. Despite minimizing sacks at an elite rate, he ranked 29th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pressured dropback. With sacks costing so much EPA, the only way to rank that poorly while avoiding sacks so well is if you're doing absolutely nothing after avoiding the sack.

This season, Nix has been far better at creating those big plays for the offense when faced with pressure, while still limiting sacks, as he now ranks 19th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pressured dropback. That's much better than playoff peer Sam Darnold, who ranks 28th.

Nix will have to continue to grow in this department if he wants to be one of the league's best quarterbacks under pressure, but he's no longer one of the league's worst, and that leap should pay dividends this postseason.

Rushing Ability

Rushing at the quarterback position used to be a novelty, but now it's an absolute necessity to be a quality starter in the modern day. With defenses becoming more athletic and offensive lines getting less practice time to gel, we haven't seen a truly immobile quarterback enter the league and have success since Kirk Cousins.

Plus, now, when every game is do-or-die, the quarterback run game becomes more valuable than ever. In November, you have to place a much greater emphasis on protecting your signal-caller, because you'll need them again the next Sunday. Now, if you don't make the most of the opportunity, there won't be a 'next Sunday.'

So far this season, Nix has been a solid rushing threat. His 356 rushing yards rank 11th among all quarterbacks and fourth among the remaining playoff field, but only 60 of those yards came on designed runs, meaning almost all of them were gained on scrambles. If the Broncos want to make the most of Nix's legs, they should lean more into those designed QB runs.

Plus, this is the week to do it. The Buffalo Bills' run defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per rush and 31st in EPA allowed per designed QB run.

Playoff Experience

This category is the one where Bo Nix actually performs the worst, which might actually be a good sign, considering it's the one thing he has the least personal control over.

Nix has just one playoff start under his belt, which is tied for the fewest in the tournament, but fortunately, three other teams have starters with the same level of playoff experience. Between Nix, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Sam Darnold, half of the remaining field has a remarkably low level of postseason experience.

C.J. Stroud has six playoff starts to his name, Brock Purdy has seven, Matthew Stafford is up to 11, and Josh Allen is leading the way with 14 postseason games.

Earlier this week, Sean Payton said that the value of playoff experience was one of his eight big postseason myths, so hopefully that rings true for Nix and the Denver Broncos against the uber-experienced Allen.