3 Keys to the Denver Broncos Upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs

On Sunday, the Denver Broncos will play their highest stakes game since Super Bowl 50, as the Kansas City Chiefs come to town with the AFC West crown hanging in the balance.

How can the Broncos pull off the upset and vanquish their rival in this massive game? Let's look.

1. Can Bo Nix Re-Find His Rhythm?

Last season, the Denver Broncos were a blocked chip-shot field goal away from sweeping the Kansas City Chiefs, and Bo Nix's performance against the hated division rival was a major reason why.

Over his two games against the Chiefs, Nix was 48-for-59 (81.4%) for 536 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Now, of course, half of that sample came in Week 18, against a KC defense resting some key starters.

That said, even in his lone game against a fully loaded Chiefs defense, Nix performed well, completing 22 of his 30 passes (73.3%) for 215 yards and two scores. In Kansas City's notoriously hostile environment, Nix confidently diced up Steve Spagnuolo's defense and composed probably his most impressive performance to date, considering the context of the game and opponent.

This season, that version of Nix has been missing from the attack. The confidence he had as he dissected Kansas City a year ago has largely vanished, and the franticness that has replaced it has led to him playing out of rhythm for much of the campaign.

Frantically breaking the pocket has made Nix the league's most difficult quarterback to sack, but at the cost of making him one of the least accurate quarterbacks this season.

If Nix can re-find the balance he struck last season between mitigating sacks and firing the ball from advantageous positions, the Broncos offense should look much more like it did a season ago.

Thankfully, there's a real reason to believe Nix could flip this switch.

In 2024, Nix was also having a famously rough start to his season before the light finally came on for him following the Broncos' Thursday Night performance against the lowly New Orleans Saints. National media circled the wagons in light of Nix's primetime floundering, only for Nix to turn a meaningful corner from Week 8 on.

Hopefully, history can repeat itself this week.

2. Can the Denver Broncos Stay Light on Defense?

The last time we saw the Kansas City Chiefs offense, Patrick Mahomes offered up the worst regular-season showing of his NFL career.

In Week 9, against the meager Bills defense, the NFL's golden child looked lost. Mahomes completed just 15 of his 34 attempts, for 250 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception.

So, how did Buffalo accomplish that feat, only to turn around and see Miami drop 30 on them? They leaned into their dime package, and Kansas City had no answer for it.

Against the Chiefs this season, the Bills played out of the dime package on 45.6% of the team's defensive snaps, which is the highest rate for any game of the Sean McDermott era in Buffalo. They also played the lowest rate of base defense of any game since McDermott's arrival.

That strategy was remarkably effective, and it's not too hard to see why. Kansas City has an excellent offensive line, but their running back room might be the worst the league has to offer. Knowing that, Buffalo refused to match Reid's heavier offensive personnel with heavier defensive personnel. They dared the Chiefs to prove they could be more physical and run the ball against the lighter Bills defense, and they couldn't.

Rather than playing base defense against looks that featured only two wide receivers, as most typically do, Buffalo stayed in nickel. When the Chiefs trotted three wide receivers onto the field, the Bills responded by adding an extra defensive back and operating out of dime.

Not only was this blueprint effective, but the Broncos have much better personnel than the Bills, especially for implementing a dime-focused defensive game plan. Even without Pat Surtain II, Denver has seven trustworthy defensive backs overall, between four cornerbacks and three safeties. The Broncos' defensive backs are also a physical group, which further enables this strategy. Finally, with Alex Singleton not playing in this game, Vance Joseph has added motivation to replace one of his linebackers with an extra defensive back.

3. Is RJ Harvey Ready to Carry Denver's Run Game?

JK Dobbins has exceeded all expectations since joining the Denver Broncos, as he's played like one of the best backs in the sport, despite his low-priced one-year deal. In fact, he's been so tremendous for the offense that he's likely the attack's most important skill-position player.

This week, and seemingly for the next few weeks at least, the Broncos will be without Dobbins, which is especially troubling given how shipwrecked the offense has looked with the immensely talented runner. That thought alone is enough to churn stomachs all across the Mile High City.

RJ Harvey hopes to be the Pepto Bismol to that discomfort, after offering Broncos Country some promising flashes as a complementary piece through the season's first 10 weeks. He's already proven himself as a pass-catcher, but for Harvey to effectively fill in for Dobbins, he'll have to be a much more reliable runner than he's been so far this season

Harvey's 4.3 yards per carry is pretty comparable to the league average of 4.4, but he's earned that average off a few huge gains and a lot of underwhelming carries. Harvey's success rate (meaning, how frequently he keeps the offense ahead of the sticks) of 34.0% is dramatically worse than the league average of 49.7%.

For Harvey to be a reliable piece of the offense that Sean Payton and Bo Nix can consistently lean on in Dobbins' absence, he can't be putting the offense behind schedule two-thirds of the time.