Tue Blog: How Did Trump's Tax Cuts Affect Tax Revenue for the Feds?

OUR FUTURIST THOMAS FREY IS AT 2 TODAY You can find out more about Thomas and the future by clicking here. We're talking smart glasses which you can read more about here, and robotic dogs which you can see here?

CAN WE TALK ABOUT TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH FOR A MINUTE? I keep hearing Biden and other talk about how Trump cut taxes for the rich with the implication being that the federal government, and therefore government programs for the poor, are being hurt. Listener Joe, who is a super smart dude, sent me this email yesterday but I wanted to check his work before I shared it, even though he's never let me down. He's right, of course and we need to talk about it because MORE lies are being told about Republican policies now and we need to push back with real results. Joe's email:

Subject: [EXTERNAL] Trump tax plan sets yet another new all time record high for tax revenues
 When the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation was asked to score the impact of the proposed Trump tax plan in late 207, here was their conclusion (QUOTE):
 "The staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates that enacting the bill would reduce revenues by about $1,438 billion over the 2018-2027 period, and decrease outlays by $2 billion over the same period, leading to an increase in the deficit of $1,437 billion over the next 10 years"
 Now keep in mind that the JCT was required to use what is known as a "Static Forecasting Model" that does not allow them to include any potential tax revenue benefit resulting from any economic stimulus that might arise from those cuts in TAX RATES.
 So now that we are five years into the Trump tax plan (that took effect on January 1, 2018), what effect did it actually have on TAX REVENUES?
 If you take the ten year $1.438 Trillion DECLINE in expected tax revenues over that ten year period, that works out to an average decline in expected tax revenue of approximately $143.8 Billion per year.
 And what were those expected tax revenues?
 At the time the analysis & projection was done, the US had just completed FY 2017 which ended September 30, 2017. Tax revenues for that Fiscal year came in at $3.315 Trillion which reflected a tax revenue growth rate of 1.47% over the previous fiscal year.
 Using the static forecasting model and applying that 1.47% rate of growth to the FY 2017 base year and compounding that growth rate annually, Tax revenues for FY 2022 would have come in at $3.566 Trillion and a five year Tax revenue total of $17.320 Trillion without any impact or reduction associated with the proposed Trump tax plan (see attached spreadsheet). If you were to include the predicted loss of $143.8 billion per year in tax revenues associated with the Trump tax plan, that predicted 5 year revenue total would have fallen by $719 Billion to $16.601 Trillion.
 And what actually happened?
 FY 2018 was a blend of 3 months of the old Obama era tax plan (October-December 2017) and 9 months of of the new Trump tax plan. Tax revenues for that Fiscal year did come in $35 billion lower than the continuation of the Obama tax plan would have yielded.
 In FY 2019 (a full 12 months of the new Trump tax plan), tax revenues came in $39 Billion AHEAD of what the static forecasting model would have predicted for the Obama era tax plan ($3.462 Trillion actual vs. $3.413 Trillion Obama plan prediction).
FY 2020 was the pandemic year and as expected, tax revenues fell but only by $42 Billion from prior year and only $43 Billion behind the Obama tax plan model (not adjusted for any negative Covid impact).
 Then we get to FY 2021.  Tax revenues SOAR by $626 Billion to a new all time record high of $4.046 Trillion, an 18.3% increase over FY 2020 and $532 Billion HIGHER than predicted if the old Obama tax plan had still been in place.
 And then we get to FY 2022 which ended on September 30, 2022. Tax revenues again SOAR by another $850 Billion to another new all time record high of $4.896 Trillion bringing ten Five Fiscal year total tax revenues under the Trump tax plan to $19.153 Trillion, $1.833 HIGHER than the 5 year predicted 5 year tax revenue total of $17,320 Trillion that would have been expected had the Obama era plan been left in place (and with ZERO reduction for any Covid impact) .
 And what about the Corporate tax revenue component of that total tax revenue figure? Did the 40% (14 point) reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35% down to 21% crash corporate tax revenues?  Let's see what the Treasury data says: 
For FY 2017, Corporate tax revenues were $297 Billion. For FY 2022, that figure had grown by 43% to $425 Billion. Not bad for a 40% reduction in Corporate tax RATES! 
 So is the Trump tax plan responsible for increasing the National Debt by more than $6 Trillion over the past 5 years? No. In fact, without the increase in tax revenues attributable to the Trump tax plan, that increase in the national debt would have been another $1.8 Trillion HIGHER!
 Another liberal myth crushed by facts and data.

So all that nonsense about Trump's tax cuts being the reason for high deficits is blown out of the water, remember this when you see the commercials I'm referencing below.

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NOTHING BUT ABORTION AND LYING ABOUT SOCIAL SECURITY AT THIS POINT This morning when I was watching something on YouTube I was treated to an attack ad against Joe O'Dea, featuring a nice little old latin lady who first off repeated the nonsensical trope that Republicans give all kinds of special tax breaks to oil and gas, which is a lie, they get the same tax breaks as other companies, and then she trots out the "they are going to take away my social security and medicare" crap and I almost broke my computer screen. One more time, the Republicans, who are the grownups in the room on this, are trying to SAVE social security and Medicare by raising the retirement age and using asset measures that would knock really rich people off Social Security (that they all paid into their entire lives I might add) completely OFF the program. No one is going to take this stupid broads stuff. It's disgusting and predictable and shows they truly have NOTHING of value to run on at this point so they are using scare tactics on old people instead. What a great party. They should be proud. Read this article for more, but here is what's being suggested:

One option reportedly being discussed is raising the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare, the two largest mandatory spending programs. Each faces financial squeezes in the coming years as the baby boomers age and continue to retire. Under current rules, the Social Security system would be forced to cut benefits starting in 2034, while Medicare could run short of funds by 2028.
Earlier this year, the Republican Study Committee released a plan to raise the eligibility age for Social Security to 70 and the eligibility age for Medicare to 67. The increases would be phased in over time and once the target is reached, the eligibility age would then be indexed to life expectancy. The lawmakers also called for increased means testing in the Medicare program, and a privatization option for Social Security.

Do you think they told this woman that her current benefits are going to be CUT if they don't do something? I doubt it. Man, this is getting old.

THANK GOODNESS HICK SOLVED HOMELESSNESS IN DENVER Because we just hit a NEW RECORD for the number of homeless people living in the metro. Yay! What an accomplishment! Luckily John Hickenlooper pledged to end homelessness in ten years back in *checks notes* 2005! Imagine what life would be like if he hadn't done that! Or maybe in ended in 2015 and we just didn't notice enough? I'm not sure, because Dems have spent so much money on this surely it's fixed. Right?

HUMANA IS LEAVING THE GROUP HEALTH INSURANCE MARKET IN COLORADO And anything that decreases competition is NOT good when it comes to health insurance. They only cover about 183,000 people but as I said, this is bad news. We also just lost Bright Health, which ran the Colorado exchange plan, and now that we're losing another company I sure hope that someone is trying to do a deep dive about whether or not there are issues that need to be addressed legally by the State to keep other companies here. I don't know what those could be, but one is not horrible, two should be concerning to someone in charge.

BE SURE TO THANK TEACHERS UNIONS FOR LEARNING LOSS As they were the ones directing the CDC to make stupid, non science based recommendations during covid. We know the teachers unions had a direct line to the CDC from leaked emails, we know that Joe Biden and his wife DR. Biden said this would be the most union friendly administration ever, and now we know reading and math scores declined dramatically across the country because of them. Colorado's reading scores were okay, but math took a big hit, and black and Hispanic kids are doing even worse than they were before. My favorite quote is this one:

“The decline in academic performance throughout the country is terribly concerning but is not unexpected due to the challenges from the pandemic,” said Colorado Education Commissioner Katy Anthes. 

So they knew it would hurt kids but they did it anyway. Thanks, Teachers Unions!


WILL TINA PETERS RETURN THE MONEY TO DONORS FOR HER FAILED RECOUNT BID? She is getting a big fat check back from the Secretary of State's office after sending them about $255 grand for the recount that clearly showed she got her butt KICKED by Pam Anderson, but it didn't cost that much so she is getting refunded about $137,000. What can she do with that money? She's pretty limited by IRS and Election rules, but giving the money BACK to donors would be nice. It will not happen, because Peters is a delusional wanna be megalomaniac and would simply not feel a compulsion to do the right thing.

TWO PIT BULL OWNERS ARE FACING CHARGES Because their dogs killed an elderly woman and attacked a twelve year old boy. This is a horrible situation. The grandmother of the boy died after being mauled so badly her arm had to amputated, and the twelve year old boy is recovering from multiple bites. Now the owners are facing charges, even though one of the owners was the granddaughter of the woman and the mom of the boy. Perhaps this will give people pause before deciding this is a good family breed. By the way, these dogs had never been aggressive with people before according to their owners.

PROP FF WOULD DEVASTATE CHARITABLE GIVING IN COLORADO And this is why it needs to be a hard NO. By capping the amount a taxpayer can claim as a deduction on their state taxes, it would disincentivize the considerable giving that the evil rich do every year. I realize that many on the left think rich people just sit around and count their money before snatching a lollipop away from a child, but the reality is most rich people give, and they give quite a bit. This isn't speculation, this has already been tried in Hawaii and lawmakers were forced to repeal it. Read more here.

OUR JUSTICES TRIED TO SHIELD THEMSELVES FROM THE MEDIA And I get it, when you are being investigated for malfeasance you want to play it close, but Colorado Supreme Court Chief Justice Brian Boatright went beyond what is reasonable in an effort to keep the press from getting access to anything. This whole story has flown a little too under the radar for my taste, as it includes bad behavior from those with the most legal power in Colorado. I think this should have been blown wide open but it's kind of a dry boring story so it's not.

IF I DIE PREMATURELY, DO ME A SOLID AND GROW SOME FLOWERS WITH ME I am the gardner in my household, so if I die prematurely and compost my body, its going to be on you people who do garden to use that compost to grow lovely flowers all over the metro. I'd like that. Now I can as a new body composting facility is coming to Denver.

BUT I DON'T WANT TO GO ON THE AIR That is what happened to a British radio presenter (DJ) who apparently died DOING his morning show from his home studio. This is my nightmare to be sure.

ADIDAS DROPS KANYE WEST This is not surprise as his brand has turned toxic after a series of anti-Semitic tweets and messages by Kanye West. I'm not sorry about this, as I think anti-Semitism should have serious repercussions. That being said, I'm wondering if West sues people like Ari Emanuel, who called for brands to drop West over the comments. Tortious interference with a contract is a thing, though it would be a very tough thing to prove in this respect but I'm sure Ye has lawyers who would try it.

WHY YOU NEVER APOLOGIZE: SAN FRANCISCO MAYOR EDITION San Fran Mayor London Breed is trying to address the rampant drug dealing in the open air drug markets/homeless encampments and recently called a spade a spade when she specifically called out Honduran drug dealers as a big part of the problem. The mayor, who is black, was immediately called a racist for pointing out a factual point, and then she apologized. It only made her look weak, and this story by a guy whose been covering drugs and crime in San Fran lays out how progressive and progressive policies in the city mean if you get caught, just call someone a racist and it will all go away. San Fran is over.

SPEAKING OF RACISM, GUTFELD EXPLAINS IT PERFECTLY I'm not up when Gutfeld! airs live but I love catching up later and this is magic and entirely accurate, which is why the word "racist" means nothing these days.


IF HALLMARK MADE HALLOWEEN MOVIES This is hilarious if you love or hate Hallmark Channel.

GOOD ON THESE PARENTS, BUT MAKE HIM CLEAN UP THE MESS This boy is an enterprising little guy, who just wants water. Click here if it doesn't load.

THIS DUDE'S HOUSE HAS A PORTAL TO THE MATRIX Or he just knows how to make super cool videos. Click here if it doesn't load.

STRONGEST DUDE EVER! At least that's what I'd call myself if something like this happened to me. Click here if it doesn't load.

DON'T MISS YOUR CHANCE TO SEE THESE COUNTRY SUPERSTARS AT MILE HIGH George Strait and Chris Stapleton are coming to Mile High! The show is next June, but the tickets go on sale a week from Friday. Read more here.

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