CDPHE: COVID-19 Peak Has Not Yet Hit Colorado

In a teleconference on Monday, Colorado health officials says the COVID-19 peak in Colorado has not yet hit, despite at least one national model showing otherwise.

State Epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said the model used in Colorado incorporates real-time data from the state, which many other models omit.

"We place greater trust in the models from the Colorado School of Public Health and the University of Colorado partners," Dr. Herlihy said. "This is because these models are based on Colorado data and assumptions that we believe best apply to Colorado, not national assumptions."

Dr. Herlihy said they expect the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in Colorado to be in the time frame of May-later in the summer, depending on the effectiveness of social distancing.

HIGHLIGHTS OF MONDAY'S TELECONFERENCE:

--The spread of COVID-19 in Colorado has slowed even though the number of cases is increasing.

--Colorado has achieved approximately 45% social distancing, thus saving approximately 1,200 lives.

--30%-40% of Coloradoans will be infected with COVID-19, with 5% of those needing to be hospitalized.

The following is the list of topics covered in the teleconference, followed by the full audio.

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CDPHE TELECONFERENCE - MONDAY, APRIL 6, 2020

PARTICIPANTS:

--Jill Hunsaker Ryan, Executive Director, CDPHE

--Dr. Rachel Herlihy, State Epidemiologist, CDPHE

--Dr. Eric France, Chief Medical Officer, CDPHE

--Scott Bookman, Incident Commander for state COVID-19

OPENING REMARKS FROM EACH PERSON

MS. HUNSAKER RYAN 

--Thanks to all

--Masks

--Counties in Colorado, most affected

--New data and totals

--Incidents of COVID-19 in Colorado

--Staying at home working

--Trying to slow spread to keep pressure off hospitals

--Models - based on real-time Colorado data

DR. HERLIHY

--Spread has slowed

--Peak depends on social distancing

--Too soon to know peak

--Models based on Colorado data

--Traffic in state has decreased

--Slowing spread

--Measure doubling time

--Early social distancing starting to slow spread - about 45% soc dist

--About 1200 cases prevented because of soc dist

--Have to take this seriously

DR. FRANCE

--Crisis Standards of Care

--Guidelines on how medical community allocates equipment and resources in time of crisis

--The four tiers of the Crisis Standards of Care

Q&A

--Steve Stager, 9News - IHME model shows Colorado past peak - Dr. Herlihy, we use Colorado data

--Mark Craddock, World Journal Newspaper - Details on Crisis Level of Care - Dr. France

--Ellis Arnold, Col Comm Media - When likely to see peak? - Dr. Herlihy, depends on soc dist, May-later in summer

--Marian Goodland, Col Politics - IHME says we're past peak - Dr. Herlihy, depends on level of soc dist achieved

--Ellis Arnold, Col Comm Media - More dramatic step than stay at home order? , Ms. Hunsaker Ryan, evaluating success of that order

--Steve Stager, 9News - DOes IHME model complicate things for State of Colorado? - Dr. Herlihy, mult models good, use Col data here

--Jim Anderson, AP - How does Colorado compile PPE requests for Feds? - Mr. Bookman

--Jeremy Jojola, 9News - Why no data on recoveries? - Dr. Herlihy

--Cory Jones, CPR News - What do to slow down spread at elder facilities? - Dr. France

--Jesse Paul, Colorado Sun - Outdoor social distancing etiquette - Dr. Herlihy

--Mary Shin, Gazette - More COVID tests available? Dr. France

--John Engold, Col Sun - Infection rate details - Dr. France

KOA NewsRadio's Jerry Bell has more on COVID-19 in Colorado.

Jerry reports on peak or no peak in Colorado.