Ranking the Broncos' Most Desirable Potential Divisional Round Opponents

This season's NFL Playoffs kick off this weekend, and by the end of Monday night, we'll know which team the Denver Broncos will be hosting for next weekend's Divisional Round.

Thanks to seeding, we already know it will be one of four AFC playoff teams -- the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, or Los Angeles Chargers -- with the combinations breaking down as follows:

• If the Chargers beat the Patriots, the Chargers will be the Broncos' Divisional Round opponent.
• If the Bills beat the Jaguars AND the Patriots beat the Chargers, the Bills will be the Broncos' Divisional Round opponent.
• If the Patriots beat the Chargers AND the Jaguars beat the Bills, the winner of Monday night's Steelers vs. Texans game will be the Broncos' Divisional Round opponent.

Which of those outcomes is most preferable for Broncos Country? Let's take a look

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers being the most desirable second-round opponent for the Denver Broncos should surprise no one.

They're two weeks removed from producing one of the season's most nauseating offensive performances to lose to the Cleveland Browns and they only punched their ticket to the playoffs because the Baltimore Ravens' rookie kicker had his first career miss inside 50 yards.

Among the seven AFC playoff teams, the Steelers rank seventh in yards per game, yards per game allowed, points allowed, and scoring differential, while ranking sixth in points scored per game. DVOA, the modern standard of the analytics space, also ranks Pittsburgh as the sixth-best AFC playoff team and has the Steelers as the only AFC playoff team that doesn't boast a top-10 offense, defense, or special teams unit.

The Steelers are also an appealing opponent because of their recent playoff history. They haven't won a playoff game since 2016, and have lost six consecutive postseason contests over that span, by an average score of approximately 38-24.

2. Los Angeles Chargers

During that breakdown of the Steelers, you might have wondered, 'Well, if Pittsburgh ranks sixth among the AFC playoff teams in points scored and overall DVOA, who's the worst AFC playoff team in those categories?'

The Los Angeles Chargers.

Ever since their red-hot 3-0 start, the Chargers have suffered a mountain of injuries, which decimated their offense for much of the season, and led to them closing the season with a more pedestrian 9-5 finish. While Jim Harbaugh opted to rest some of the Chargers' starters last week, the playoff version of his squad won't look too wildly different, outside of the obvious outlier at quarterback, because a lot of the starters who were absent for Week 18 will be out for the entirety of the postseason.

With so little talent on the offensive line, if the Chargers are to do anything in the playoffs this year, it will be the result of a Herculean effort from Justin Herbert, which is hard to bank on, considering how much he's struggled in the postseason so far.

Over two playoff starts, Herbert is 39-for-75 for 515 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions, producing a passer rating of 60.8. Advanced analytics also portray Herbert as a playoff shrinker. Since entering the NFL in 2020, Herbert has averaged 0.15 expected points added (EPA) per dropback during the regular season and -0.04 EPA/dropback in the postseason, which ranks 27th out of 31 qualifying playoff quarterbacks.

3. Houston Texans

Unlike either the Los Angeles Chargers or the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Houston Texans have a truly dominant unit they can hang their hat on as they chase a Super Bowl title.

Their defense has the potential to be remembered as a historically great unit, depending on their playoff performance, as they rank either first or second in yards allowed, points allowed, and the aforementioned defensive DVOA. With Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, they're the only team that can hold a candle to Denver's dominant pass rush, and they own the league's best secondary, with Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre, and Calen Bullock.

Now, on the other hand, their offense is incredibly limited and their glaring weakness along the offensive line should be easily exploited by Denver's league-leading sack artists. That said, the Texans offense has been playing its best ball recently, and the Broncos needed a field goal at the buzzer to beat a Davis Mills-led version of the Texans earlier this season.

4. Buffalo Bills

The weight of the NFL world will come crashing down on Josh Allen if he fails to win a Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow all watching the postseason from their sofas. This is the most high-stakes playoff run of his career so far, and it'd be best to stay out of his way until absolutely necessary.

Allen is comfortably the best quarterback in the playoffs and the Buffalo Bills are the roster with the most playoff experience, making them a scary foe. On top of that, they're perfectly built to exploit the Broncos' lack of size on defense, which has been a common theme in all of the Broncos' worst defensive performances of the past two seasons. Buffalo's towering offensive line and stable of backs are built to ground you up into a pulp, and they're so effective at it that Allen's quarterbacking ability has been the offense's second pitch most of this season.

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo is well-suited to give Denver plenty of headaches. Although this defense is weaker than most of Sean McDermott's recent units, the Broncos will struggle to exploit their weakness, unless J.K. Dobbins makes a miraculous return. EPA has the Bills as the NFL's sixth-best pass defense but the third-worst run defense. Unfortunately, the Broncos have struggled to rely on the ground game ever since Dobbins' exit.