Just One Thing: One right, one wrong
This will seem irrelevant but I'll come back to it: The ridiculous leaked "intelligence report" that claimed that the US had only set the Iranian nuclear program back by a few months was obviously political (anti-Trump) nonsense and it apparently had been noted as "low confidence" within the DIA, based on reporting. Low confidence means what it sounds like: a strong likelihood of being wrong due to being based on incomplete or untrustworthy sources of information. Low-confidence reports are almost never acted on within the government and should not be the subject of breathless news reporting. When someone makes a guess with "low confidence", it's not then a big mistake if that turns out not to be true. An assessment made with high confidence better be true almost all the time or you'll be out of a job.
So, I made two guesses on Tuesday:
First, I guessed with high confidence that Douglas County home rule would fail and with moderate confidence that it would not be particularly close. I was right but actually underestimated the degree to which the idea got crushed by voters: 29% for, 71% against. The best arguments against home rule were, in my opinion, made by County Commissioner George Teal, who was a spokesman FOR home rule. I'm sure he won't enjoy that particular assessment but it is what it is.
This sounds a lot like the pro-home rule commissioners claiming that the vote wasn't really representative of the voters. Not quite "stolen election" stuff but in that direction: Voters decide against Home Rule Charter Commission - Douglas County
Douglas County home rule vote fails by wide margin - The Colorado Sun
Second, I guessed with low confidence that Andrew Cuomo would win the Democratic Primary election for mayor of NYC. He didn't. I thought it would be difficult for an anti-Semitic socialist to win in New York but I was wrong. Clearly there was a lot of enthusiasm for Zohran Mamdani among certain folks but it also helped him a lot that Cuomo is an unlikeable sexual harasser and killer of nursing-home residents. It was the height of hubris for Cuomo to run for office. Now the city, the state, and maybe the nation will suffer for it. It's almost Shakespearean.
Democrats fret after Mamdani stuns in New York City mayor's race | AP News
'Wake up call.' What Zohran Mamdani's win means for Democrats and GOP
I think it's a mistake for Trump to spend time blasting Mamdani because in NYC that's a badge of honor and will only serve to solidify his already very high chance of winning: Trump blasts Zohran Mamdani as a '100% Communist Lunatic' in scathing NYC mayoral rant
Does San Francisco represent NYC's future? Daniel Lurie Wants to Save San Francisco from Itself
So while I got one right and one wrong, the one I got right is the one I would have bet a lot on, and the one I got wrong is one I explicitly said I "wouldn't bet more than a dollar on." That's why understanding and assigning confidence is important. And it's why the ridiculous leaked "intelligence report" should never have been the subject of a news story (though it should be the reason that the leaker goes to prison.)
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Today's Guests
Cleave Simpson is the newly named CO Senate Minority Leader. He's a farmer, rancher, and graduate of the Colorado School of Mines and represents a massive senate district covering most of south-central and southwest Colorado.
We'll discuss his plans to try to reduce the cost of living in Colorado, what the GOP can do in the minority, how to make the state party more unified and relevant and thereby perhaps get Republicans into the majority in the senate, which seems far more likely than in the House or the governor's mansion.
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Mick Mulvaney is a former White House Chief of Staff, Dir of OMB, and member of Congress. Currently, among other things, he’s a political and economic contributor at News Nation
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Other Stuff
Dept of Education looks to make an example of California regarding boys in girls' sports: U.S. Department of Education Finds California Department of Education and California Interscholastic Federation in Violation of Title IX | U.S. Department of Education
California found in violation of Title IX in clash with Trump officials over transgender athletes - ABC News
I suspect CA will refuse to comply even though Gavin Newsom now says allowing boys in girls' sports is "deeply unfair" to the girls. (I don't believe he's on record in the past as explicitly stating the opposite but he had generally supported every "trans rights" thing to come his way including a bill, signed in 2013 when he was Lt Gov, that explicitly allowed boys in girls' sports.
And even if Newsom does order state agencies to comply, someone will sue and this will be tied up in court for a long time, maybe for longer than the rest of the Trump presidency.
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Leaders don't follow polls; they change them. Time for Trump in particular to start leading on this, explaining the benefits to the country. And he has to NOT focus on "no tax on tips" or a SALT increase (both of which are bad policy) but instead on the fact that if the bill doesn't pass something like 2/3 of the nation will get a tax hike and the ones who won't are mostly upper-income people in high-tax states. I realize that Trump is busy with war(s) right now, but if he wants this to pass, he should change the polls.
By the way, I don't love this bill. It's better with the initially proposed senate amendments but I don't know what will actually be in it. I absolutely HATE the SALT increase. A giveaway to a small number of upper-middle class people in NY and CA and NJ, etc., to be subsidized by everybody else. It's terrible.
Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' has a big public opinion problem
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Gotta be careful talking about race, but this is an interesting story: Mavericks select Duke star Cooper Flagg with first overall NBA draft pick | Fox News
My takeaway is not any negative thing regarding race, racism, or the US, but rather how basketball may be the most truly international sport, or at least right up there with soccer.
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Polis loses round one: Judge blocks Colorado governor from ordering certain state workers to hand over employment info to ICE - The Colorado Sun
Judge blocks Colorado governor from forcing some staff to aid ICE subpoena - Axios Denver
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US vs Iran: Trump says that the US will meet with Iran but that he's not particularly interested in major negotiations because all he cares about is Iran's not having (or trying to acquire) a nuclear weapon and he thinks he's set the program back for years and said explicitly that the US will attack Iran again if they try to restart the program.
I do like going in, breaking things, and leaving. It's what we should have done in Afghanistan.
Trump Says U.S. and Iran to Meet; White House Disputes Damage Report - The New York Times
Trump says US would strike Iran again if nuclear program is rebuilt | Fox News
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An interesting moment in a Trump press conference (in Europe) yesterday
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It's a brave new world, with some real ethical considerations: Synthetic Human Genome Project gets go ahead
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A couple of things: Maybe they should have put some hidden color coding on each invitation so if one showed up in the media, they'd know who leaked. Also, I hate it when people claim that very rich entrepreneurs don't pay tax or don't pay enough tax. First, it's almost never actually true. Second, and let's focus on Amazon here: Can you imagine the amount of tax revenue created by Bezos? Especially sales tax but also income tax from their employees, even vehicle-related taxes because they have so many vans on the road, etc. The benefits to tax coffers from the very existence of Amazon are enormous.
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez’s Venice wedding invitation revealed
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Following up on a story from Friday about the federal gov't rescinding the "roadless rule" for national forests: Colorado's roadless rule safe from Trump's axe
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A very thoughtful note by a top Israeli journalist:
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Patience, Grasshopper
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