Trump's Speech
Donald Trump gave a very long speech to a Joint Session of Congress last night. (Much like a State of the Union, but the speech is not called that when it's the first one in a president's term.)
Highlights from President Donald Trump's 2025 joint address to Congress | AP News
It was Trumpy in style but mostly contained policy positions I support.
Two things that still concern me:
He gave a hint that there might be some positive developments regarding conversations with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy but we'll see. I still think Trump should be putting at least as much pressure on Russia. This is just terrible: Ukraine-Russia war latest: US cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine
And in his talk about tariffs, it remains clear to me as it has for years, that he doesn't just like them for leverage; he likes them as economic policy. History and a basic understanding of economics suggests they will not work out well. So the question for me is whether terrible trade policy will undermine all the other good stuff he wants to do as far as pro-growth economic policies, because trade wars are so massively anti-growth (which Trump does not understand.)
All that said, Trump was great on regulation, taxation, the border, and saying he wants a balanced budget. (Unfortunately, with that last point he seemed to suggest that the key way to get it done would be by selling US citizenship for $5 million and I just don't think there will be enough takers to make a measurable impact on the nation's finances. I sure wish he'd said he was willing to look at modest reforms to Social Security and Medicare but he's never been open to that.) His desire to not have taxes on tips or overtime or Social Security will not fit well with any plan for a balanced budget.
Trump announced this last night: Trump says US has apprehended ‘top terrorist’ responsible for 2021 Kabul airport bombing | CNN Politics
Below, one good line and then the whole speech. If you watch, I recommend watching at 1.25x or 1.5x speed. You can understand it fine even at the higher speed.
There was some very bad Democratic behavior. Riley Gaines explains:
Just One Thing: Panama Canal port operations sold to US company
Yep, "wow" was the word that came into my head and out of my mouth when I read this headline: BlackRock strikes deal to bring ports on both sides of Panama Canal under American control | AP News
It's a MUCH bigger deal than just the Panama Canal so I think it wasn't only based on Hutchison's fear of Trump but that probably gave BlackRock a bit of leverage.
A bit on tariffs
I'm gonna try not to talk about tariffs every day because we have to see how this all plays out. But I just want to give you a sense of how it might play out. I'll add one bigger-picture point: The potential gain from Trump's trade wars is probably less than 1% of the potential risk, and that's not an exaggeration.
Yale estimate of fiscal and economic impacts of just-announced tariffs: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of 20% Tariffs on China and 25% Tariffs on Canada and Mexico | The Budget Lab at Yale
Obviously I agree: Larry Summers Thinks Trump’s Tariffs Are a Disaster
This is just two industries but will give you a sense of how bad these tariffs could be on one industry that few people will ever see directly but will see the effects of indirectly, and one industry that everybody will see directly.
Trump tariffs to jack up uranium price as U.S. utilities shop for millions of pounds
Brace Yourself: Tariffs Could Increase Car Prices Immediately
The auto industry cannot pivot on a dime to adapt to tariffs
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Interesting to see two outlets with similar formulations. I think it's basically right but I'd just add that it is a very bad gamble, at least if he intends to keep tariffs in place:
Trump’s Latest Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China Could Be His Biggest Gamble - The New York Times (may require subscription)
Trump makes fateful wager by testing his lifelong faith in the power of tariffs | CNN Politics
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Today's Guests
Dr Tom Palmer is one of the smartest, most principled, and most interesting people I've ever met. He's the Executive Vice President for International Programs for at the Atlas Network (and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute) and he travels the world trying to increase individual liberty. One of his recent trips, believe it or not, was to Syria. We'll probably also talk a little bit about free trade.
Atlas Network | Dr. Tom G. Palmer
Atlas Network | Strengthening the Worldwide Freedom Movement
Atlas Network | What is Atlas Network Doing in Syria?
Syrian Jews say held first group prayer in decades in Damascus synagogue
The Moral Case for Globalization | Cato Institute
Tom’s most recent book: Institutions and Economic Development: Markets, Ideas, and Bottom-Up Change | SpringerLink
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Congressman Jeff Hurd (R-CO3) joins us to talk about his experience at the Donald Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress (technically not a State of the Union speech but basically the same thing.)
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Jim Starling is Chief infrastructure & Construction Officer at Denver International Airport.
We'll discuss plans to fix Peña Boulevard which is now inadequate to serve the airport and the many new residences and businesses in the area.
Denver airport plans $15M study ahead of Peña Boulevard transformation - Denver Business Journal (may require subscription)
Peña Master Plan | Denver International Airport
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Other Stuff
Absolutely infuriating: A $20 Billion Slush Fund—Paid by You to Progressive NGOs
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Cool story: PSD turns to Craigslist in search for available school buses to buy
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All gov't agencies should do this before there's a fiscal crisis: Marrero cuts 38 positions in Denver schools’ central office | Education | denvergazette.com
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Great note by Admiral Stavridis. This is what Trump is moving toward. I wonder if he understands the risks: Europe Is Getting Ready for the End of NATO - Bloomberg
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Offered without comment: AJ's Pit Bar-B-Q staff quits, walks out over mismanagement accusations
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I owe you a few topics from yesterday:
Second-order effects: Tesla’s plummeting sales risk its lucrative emissions credit earnings – POLITICO
Tesla's Carbon Credit Revenue Soars to $2.76 Billion Amid Profit Drop
Tesla's dominance over the carbon credit market explained | Global Fleet
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I’m not going to hold back here: This is both stupid and corrupt: where does the crypto industry go now after Trump's bid to create strategic reserve?
$300 billion Trump crypto rally re-ignites reserve fight
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Denver school news: Denver teachers won’t get bigger raises after board votes in pay dispute - Chalkbeat
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My test score wasn't too bad: How ugly is your job making you? New online test calculates impact of work on your looks
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This is so incompetent that it almost seems like a caricature but it's reality: Rollout of new California bar exam plagued with glitches - Los Angeles Times
California bar hunts for who leaked bar questions, applicants sue test administrator
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Well, that's one name for it...“Near miss”: Citigroup credited client’s account with $81tn before error spotted | Citigroup | The Guardian
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Is this the most efficient way to solve this problem? It's an interesting question, actually: if it would be cheaper just to subsidize their utility bills, might it still be worth doing to reduce total demand on power generators?
How a Mines pilot project is warming Lake County mobile homes
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Don't release your goldfish into the wild: Giant Goldfish Found in Pennsylvania Prompts A Warning For Fish Owners
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Good note by VDH. My one quibble is his use of "foreign tariffs" which seems designed to try to continue the Trump lie that foreign businesses or nations pay the tariffs when actually Americans do. Victor Davis Hanson: Can Trump Revolutionize America?
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This story is 10 years old but I like it: Next Stop Atlantic - "Splish" - Retired NYC subway cars dumped into Atlantic Ocean for artificial reef building
But, you gotta be smart: Sinking 1,000 NYC subway cars in the Atlantic to create a reef didn't go as planned - Fast Company
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Today's Video
Usually I put non-serious material there but this is important and fascinating. Remember that Saudi Arabia (which this guy is running) is the origin of Sunni radicalism, al Qaeda, the 9/11 terrorists, etc. There has long been a sort of deal between the ruling Saud family and the imams (Muslim clerics/preachers) such that the government allows radical and Islamofascist teachings in mosques as long as the imams direct the anger outside of the country. Maybe MBS is trying to change this but it won't be easy because he wants his people pacified so they don't revolt against the family