Don't let the election get you down
How politics is stressing us out more than ever
Here's a note I sent to some friends in the past couple of days and it represents a fundamental principle of mine that I mention from time to time on the show:
The reason that politics is: 1) so expensive, 2) so tribal, 3) so fear-inducing is that our government is far too big and is involved in far too many aspects of our lives. If the federal government only did what the Constitution said it should do, it would not be worth much at all to rent or buy a politicians. But now that they can decide whether your business survives (or is given other people’s money), whether you can have an abortion, whether to offer “reparations” or “child tax credits”, whether to say your can of beans has gone up too much in price so that you’re “price gouging”, the risk of having the “wrong” government really does feel like a nearly existential threat to either side.
This will not improve until we limit the range of authority of the federal government.
The question then is whether the nation will ever turn back the power and scope of government: is growing government a pendulum or a ratchet? (I think, unfortunately, that it's the latter but still we should do our best to not let politics dominate our lives or emotions.)
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Just One Thing: Israel strikes back
Over this past weekend, nearly a month after Iran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel, Israel retaliated, targeting Iranian military sites like rocket and drone manufacturing facilities and, importantly, destroying some Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft positions thus leaving Iran more vulnerable to a second attack by air. Notably, Israel did NOT strike Iranian oil or nuclear facilities. This was probably done both to try to minimize the chance of Iranian escalation and to keep the cowardly US administration happy. Given how limited the attack was, it’s unlikely to disrupt whatever little chance there is for peace in the region. The attack got surprisingly little news coverage, which seems like a good thing. Bombing Iran, yet somehow quietly, is quite an Israeli success.
Note: the billboard in today's blog note "thumbnail" picture on my home page is in Tehran and depicting Iran's missile attack on Israel. According to the Wall Street Journal, the text says "If you want war, we are masters of war."
How Israel Pulled Off Its Largest-Ever Strike on Iran - WSJ
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This is a big deal: Ballots stolen and voted in Mesa County (Colorado)
News Release - Colorado Secretary of State
Mesa County voter fraud scheme under investigation, officials say
Article by a listener
Cooper: Is signature verification of mail-in ballots valid? - Rocky Mountain Voice
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Donald Trump's appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast is at the end of this blog
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Kamala has a new "pastor" accent!
Today's Guests
Brenda Dickhoner is President and CEO of Ready Colorado. We'll discuss Amendment 80 which would make school choice a state constitutional right.
ReadyCO | Conservatives leading the charge for better schools in Colorado
Colorado Amendment 80, Constitutional Right to School Choice Initiative (2024) - Ballotpedia
Opponents, esp teachers unions, are making some wild claims. Some wonder if parents would be able to meddle in lesson plans: Amendment 80 would give Colorado parents the right to direct their kid’s education. What does that mean for schools?
Josh Hammer is Newsweek Senior Editor-at-Large and host, "The Josh Hammer Show" and “America on Trial with Josh Hammer.”
Donald Trump, Class Traitor Par Excellence | Opinion - Newsweek
Twitter: https://x.com/josh_hammer
Matt Crane is Executive Director of the Colorado County Clerks Association. Former Arapahoe County Clerk and has worked in election administration for a quarter century. Matt also consults on election processes for the federal and state governments. We're going to discuss the issue mentioned above about voter fraud in Mesa County.
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Other Stuff
It's not the beef: McDonald’s rules out beef patties as source of E. coli outbreak | Reuters
McDonald's onions traced back to Colorado Springs facility | Food, Dining & Beer | denvergazette.com
Oh, that's a mad crowd: Kamala Harris mocked after Beyoncé fails to perform at her Texas rally: 'Baited people with a free concert'
It's National Chocolate Day — How To Celebrate and Survey Results
Political betting odds: AFTER the economy and inflation (which are almost the same issue), the two issues most important to voters are immigration and abortion and on those two issues, in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, Trump leads by 12 on immigration and Harris leads by 15 on abortion. Still, the economy is, as it almost always is, the top issue and on that Trump has a lead, but less of a lead than he used to, at 8%.
Harris regains slight lead nationally yet Electoral College holds the cards: POLL
Over at Polymarket, which has the most pro-Trump of all the election betting sites but is also the biggest, the current odds to win the election are Trump 65% vs Harris 35%. I think that's too aggressive. I think betting on Harris to get almost 2-to-1 if she wins has some value. BUT I say that as someone who thinks (and has thought all long) that Trump is a slight favorite to win.
Polling at 538 looks very different: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight
The other interesting thing is that Polymarket now has the odds of Trump winning every "swing state" at 35%. In mid-September, it was around 15%. (They define swing states as: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.)
Polymarket | Trump wins every swing state?
Finally, I note that betting odds on Dems taking back the House of Representatives have crashed, from quite likely to somewhat unlikely. Given the more-likely-than-not scenario of Republicans taking the majority in the Senate (although probably for only two years), this is setting up much like the first two years of Trump's presidency in which Republicans had control of everything, but only briefly. I note that that's what happened to Obama as well: Dems control everything but only for 2 years.
Interactive Brokers market on House control: IBKR ForecastTrader
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Supermarkets: 3rd Kroger-Albertsons merger trial wraps up, this time in Denver. What's next?
Washington Post follows the LA Times in not making an endorsement in the presidential race (even though you know that almost all of their employees want the papers to endorse Harris.) The Washington Post will not endorse a candidate for president - The Washington Post
The Washington Post ends backing presidential candidates as paper says Bezos axed Harris endorsement
I think there are two reasons why: Especially this close to an election, do you want to make an endorsement for a person who seems slightly more likely to lose than to win? And, Amazon Web Services makes at least hundreds of millions of dollars a year from federal contracts. The founder of Amazon, Jeff Bezos, who still owns an immense amount of stock, also owns the Washington Post. He knows that Donald Trump can be extremely vindictive and I suspect he doesn't want to endorse Harris, have Trump win, and then have the federal government look to switch service providers to Google or Microsoft. For example: Cloud for U.S. Intelligence Community | AWS
This problem has been developing for years and is only getting worse. The western world needs to prioritize not just developing its own sources of "rare earth" minerals but also refining capacity. China Tightens Its Hold on Minerals Needed to Make Computer Chips - The New York Times
However, especially if Trump wins, there will be a lot of pressure put on China and they may be forced to negotiate: China's Sept industrial profits post steepest fall of the year | Reuters
And on the other other hand, if they are forced to negotiate and make agreements about things like rare earths, it will make them even more determined to find ways to not have to cooperate with the US and the west, and possibly cause them to be militarily adventurous as well. Which is also implied by this: China leading ‘rapid expansion’ of nuclear arsenal, Pentagon says
Kinda said it was only 9-8: Elon Musk Beats Biden’s Regulators on Free Speech - WSJ
I don’t know if the Supreme Court will hear the case or uphold the 5th Circuit’s ruling. Even if they don’t, allowing ballots to be received after election day is a terrible idea, one that easily raises fears of election fraud. Mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day in Mississippi shouldn't be counted, appeals court says
Fate of the IRA (the slightly watered-down "Green New Deal") if Trump wins. Note particularly item #3 about “Learning to like the law”: Axios Markets
Axios: "The era of big news is over". And an interesting discussion of the challenges of reaching voters under the age of 35: Axios AM
Are these the real "enemy within"? The Curious Case of Ariane Tabatabai | The Free Press
Today's Videos
Four years old but still funny
Donald Trump's 3-hours on Joe Rogan's podcast
Trump's campaign is VERY much aimed at turning out male voters (because he knows he'd going to lose women by a wide margin). Rogan is the place to do that. This video has over 33 million views since it was posted on Friday.
I thought that Trump mostly did a good job. He's wrong about some important things, most notably tariffs and the crazy idea that the US could be "underlevered". But overall his performance was strong and showed a little more understanding of a range of issues than most people (including yours truly) might expect. For example, he's absolutely right about the environmentalist radicals make money by opposing growth. Kinda funny when Trump talked about getting dead leaves out of forests. My take remains that the guy isn't a moron but is also not a genius. He's basically of average overall intelligence but far above average marketing skill.