Congratulations, US Olympians
Just One Thing: Global tensions increase (which you might not have thought possible)
Maybe you thought that global tensions couldn’t get any higher. Ukrainian troops are deepening their incursion into Russia. Potential benefits for Ukraine include pulling Russian troops out of occupied Ukrainian territory and giving leverage in any potential ceasefire negotiations though I’d think that Russia has the strength to eject them. And yesterday, in an obvious message to Iran, the US ordered the nuclear-powered submarine, the USS Georgia, to the Middle East, just days after the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group was also sent to a position to be able to defend Israel and/or attack Iran. Commenting publicly on the location of a nuclear sub is exceedingly rare and is a stronger message to Iran than anything the Harris-Biden administration would threaten verbally since, based on their history of weakness, nobody would be included to believe them.
US publicly announces submarine move to Middle East amid Israel-Iran tensions | Reuters
Thoughts on presidential politics
It's not exactly early, with 85 days until the election, but it's not late either, given that Kamala Harris has only been the Democratic nominee for 3 weeks. But the polls nationally and in swing states have moved massively toward Harris. It's not as much that Trump's numbers are dropping as it is that huge numbers of previously undecided are moving toward Harris and huge numbers of Democrat-leaning voters who were unexcited about Biden and might not have turned out for him are now enthusiastic for Harris.
There was just a poll done by the Financial Times that had a couple of interesting questions. On "handling of economic issues", respondents actually trusted Harris over Trump by 1%. I'm skeptical. On the question of which person would likely cause that voter to have a better personal economic situation, Trump was preferred by a wide margin. But the fact that he's not ahead by a lot on every question of economics is incredible. (Actually, it's so incredible that I actually don't believe the poll, but even if Trump is actually ahead but by just a small margin, that's not good enough for him.) Everything we know about Harris, at least for people who are paying attention, and everything we know about her new far-left running mate, should cause extreme fear about economic policy under a Harris-Walz administration. But Donald Trump has been so focused on the past and grievances and personal attacks that he's letting Kamala redefine herself in ways that well-informed people would find unbelievable...but most people aren't well informed.
Harris, meanwhile, is dodging the media and all real questions...and so far she's getting away with it. It's a good tactic given Trump's tendency toward self-destruction but at some point seeking the most important job in the world demands that voters know what you believe. So far the only policy position (other than abortion) that we know about from Harris is one she just took from Trump: Harris matches Trump proposal to ban taxes on tips at Las Vegas rally (cnbc.com)
Here are the latest examples of Trump doing just what I'd encourage him to do if his goal were to lose the election, and to cost Republicans victories in other races:
Today's Guest
Dan Hoffman is a former 3-time CIA station chief. One of those stations has been reported to have been Moscow. We'll talk with Dan about the issues noted in today's "Just One Thing" about Ukraine/Russia and the Middle East.
We'll also discuss Havana Syndrome: CIA officer's sacrifice shows need to crack Havana syndrome mystery - Washington Times
More about Dan here: SPYEX
Follow Dan on Twitter/X here: X
Other Stuff
Not the most important, but something that makes me happy: NATIONAL VINYL RECORD DAY | August 12 - National Day Calendar
Denver Mayor Mike Johnston wants to pass his massive tax hike because he’s afraid that if he doesn’t do it now, others will pass and then voters, even in Denver, will tire of their financial masochism. Denver's dedicated sales taxes for college, climate draw scrutiny (denverpost.com) (subscription may be required)
Sales tax proposal for Denver's affordable housing advances | Government | denvergazette.com
Sad/tragic news this weekend. It should not be forgotten that Hamas is inviting these attacks by continuing to use schools as their bases of operation. White House 'deeply concerned' after Gaza officials report more than 100 killed in school sheltering thousands (nbcnews.com)
Israel strike on Gaza school building kills more than 70, hospital head says (bbc.com)
This story has more twists and turns than...an Olympic gymnast's floor routine: New video proves Jordan Chiles inquiry was submitted in time, USA Gymnastics says (msn.com)
It appears that the Iranians hacked the Trump campaign and sent a confidential vetting file about JD Vance to the media:
A generic warning: Iran Targeting 2024 US Election - Microsoft On the Issues
Specific news about the Trump campaign being hacked: Trump Campaign Hacked, Iran Likely Behind Breach | National Review
If they think you're rich, they're coming for you. I wonder if they realize that this would drive down property values in mountain towns and thereby lower property tax refenue: Colorado resort communities want to impose a vacancy tax on unoccupied homes | SummitDaily.com
Main home is 9000 sq ft but it’s not habitable…I mean, what do you want for $48.5MM? Caribou Ranch - For Sale - Colorado - Hall and Hall (hallhall.com)
China is in economic trouble (though we've known that for a while): Foreign investors pulled a record $15 billion out of China last quarter | Fortune Asia
Bjorn Lomborg is the best: The ‘Green Energy Transition’ That Wasn’t - WSJ
We're going to look back on the trillions of dollars we're spending on "green energy" as a failure as large as our 20-yr involvement in Afghanistan: Another Green Energy Subsidy Bust - WSJ
"Creative destruction" is a fact of life but this dynamic is caused by government, not by actual consumer demand: The Real Green Energy Transition: Auto Maker Layoffs - WSJ
There's one born every minute, right? MAGA misinformation trump conspiracy theories | CNN Politics
This is heavy but must not be ignored...there's still far too much of this:
High marks for courage. Low marks for being too woke. As for the dancing itself, it was bad -- but better than I could do and it's made her a viral sensation:
She didn’t score a single point: Breakdancer Raygun goes viral at Paris Olympics after she fails to score a single point (pagesix.com)
Breaking community defends Raygun and is hopeful for return to Olympic program | AP News
(91) Raygun's Olympic Controversy Explained - YouTube
Raygun Olympic fury erupts: Activist unleashes on breakdancer | Daily Mail Online
Just for fun, here's the Gold Medal winner, Ami of Japan
Meteors! How and when to watch the Perseid meteor shower | CNN
A fun bit of art history: Michelangelo’s David was censored by Queen Victoria. — History Facts
Elon Musk is in a big Twitter/X spat with a racist Scottish-Arab member of the UK parliament.
Elon Musk brands Humza Yousaf a 'super racist scumbag' (telegraph.co.uk)
Here are: a speech by the racist, a parody of the speech, one Musk tweet and a longer relevant Twitter thread
The British government is looking to prosecute people for tweeting things the gov't claims are untrue or inciting:
Today's Video
If you know what this is about, then you're deep into GenZ "culture" right now. I'm not sure how I actually know why this girl is getting her 15 minutes of fame, but she definitely is. I would make a joke about Jewish girls but I think I might get in trouble so I'll just let you make your own. I love the fact that she enjoyed "Katz's deli". And "I don't speak Jew." OMG this is the funniest redneck-learns-Judaisim things ever.
Hawk Tuah girl has DNA test - and she's 'on top of the world' with the result - Daily Star
Tom Cruise literally drops in at the Olympics closing ceremony
Also, part of the Olympics closing ceremony, a bunch of stuff in Los Angeles, the site of the 2028 Summer Olympics
Billie Eilish can really sing (if you didn't already know that)