Just One Thing: 20th Anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq War
Some folks argue that two things did more than any others to cause Millennials in particular, and to a lesser extent, Gen X-ers and Baby Boomers, to lose trust in government. Those two things were the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the Iraq War. Today, March 20th, is the 20th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq by a small coalition of nations led by the United States under president George W Bush. The run-up to the war was marred by what we now know to be massive failures by the intelligence community including the claims that Saddam Hussein had a nuclear weapons program. (As well as erroneous conclusions that he still had other WMD programs, which he no longer had.) This led to nearly 20 years of the expenditure of American blood and treasure, basically for nothing. A tragic anniversary indeed.
This will be the subject of our very important conversation with Michael Morell today. (more below)
Interesting piece by CNN, recent photos taken by Iraqis: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/19/middleeast/gallery/photos-iraq-life-after-us-invasion
And NPR's piece on photos from the beginning of the war: Photographs of the Iraq War 20 years later : The Picture Show : NPR
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This deserves its own One More Thing:
American Held Hostage in Africa Is Freed – DNyuz (original at NY Times)
Today's Guests
Debbie Ortega is an at-large member of the Denver City Council and is a candidate for mayor of Denver.
Ortega for Denver (debbieortega.com)
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Michael Morell served as Deputy Director, and twice as Acting Director, of the Central Intelligence Agency. He also spent time in the important, interesting, and historic role of being the president's daily intelligence briefer, including on September 11, 2001. He is the author of "The Great War of Our Time: The CIA's Fight Against Terrorism—From al Qa'ida to ISIS."
Twenty years ago today, his title was "Associate Deputy Director for Intelligence for Strategic Programs" which made him the third most senior person in the analysis side of the Agency.
On this 20th anniversary of the us invasion of Iraq in 2003, Mr. Morell joins the show to discuss the CIA's failures and successes -- and there were both, but the failures were more important -- in the run-up to the invasion and in the aftermath of America's removal of Saddam Hussein and the disastrous "de-Ba'athification" of Iraq.
Michael J. Morell – The Cipher Brief: "Michael was the only person who was both with President Bush on September 11th, and with President Obama on May 1st, when Bin Laden was brought to justice."
Remarkable podcast episode by Michael and guests including significant admission of error: U.S. invasion of Iraq 20 years later — "Intelligence Matters" - CBS News
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Ben Faber is a member of the "Recall Todd and Heidi Committee" which aims to recall two members of the Broomfield City Council, Todd Cohen and Heidi Henkel.
https://recalltoddandheidi.org
Interesting to note the latter's social media posting in which she thinks that "capitalism is the #1 reason why we have so many issues in America."
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Other Stuff
Congratulations to University of Northern Colorado wrestler Andrew Alirez for winning the national title in his weight class, the first UNC student to do for about 60 years: Northern Colorado's Andrew Alirez wins national title at 141 pounds (denverpost.com)
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The end of an era in Denver, and we don't actually know why it's happening: Denver’s Blake Street Tavern closing after 20 years (denver7.com)
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No matter what else you do as a Denver voter, here's why you must NOT vote for Lisa Calderon for mayor: https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/03/20/lisa-calderon-progressive-backing-denver-mayoral-race
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On Saturday, former President Donald Trump said he expects to be arrested on Tuesday and asked his followers to "Protest, protest, protest...(to) save America" and to "Protest. Take our nation back." Even many hard-core right-wingers are saying "No thanks, Donald." Which only means they're pushing back against the call for protests, especially given recent history of what happened when Trump more-or-less called for protests on January 6, 2021. But they're absolutely with Trump (as am I) in calling out the egregiousness of this particular line of prosecutorial attack on the former president. It's nonsense, it's purely political, and everybody knows it.
Bragg, who famously downgrades most felony charges to misdemeanors must do the opposite with Trump in order to be able to bring a case at all. And he's also the guy who previously dropped a case against Trump about "financial irregularities" causing folks to wonder why he's resuscitating this pig of a case.
Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced that he wants a congressional investigation into the NYC prosecutor, Alvin Bragg (and his office), who is thought to be preparing to indict Trump. That's understandable but it's a dangerous road in its own right.
Trump's post on Truth Social: @realDonaldTrump's post | Truth Social
Trump says he expects to be arrested on Tuesday, calls for protests | Reuters
Trump’s call for protest over potential arrest sparks fears of violence (msn.com)
Decent NYT explanation of arguments in favor of and against indictment (may require subscription): Indictment Week? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
McCarthy orders congressional probe of local district attorney investigating Trump (axios.com)
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I've been noting since the start of the SVB mess that the lack of regulations was almost certainly NOT the problem. The lack of effective enforcement of existing regulations was. That seems to be getting proven with reports like these:
Before Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the Fed Spotted Big Problems – DNyuz (original at NY Times)
Federal Reserve sounded alarm about Silicon Valley Bank's risk management in 2019: report (msn.com)
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I've been talking a little on the show about my expectation that we'll see a few (but probably not very many) bank "take-unders". A take-under is like a takeover except at a price that's lower than the price at which the stock is currently trading. That just happened this weekend with the purchase by UBS of Credit Suisse at a price that will end up being somewhere around 40% of Friday's closing price for CS which itself was already down something like 80% in the past year. When a bank needs to sell, which is quite different from just wanting to sell, and particularly at a time when banks generally are under some stress, all of the leverage is with the buyer. That's even more true when the government would be likely to make the deal even worse for the bank that's being sold if they don't go along. Now this deal is between two Swiss companies but I think we'll see a few of these in the US. I do wonder whether First Republic Bank, which was $115 per share on March 8th and closed at $23 last Friday, will be the first. (It's yet unknown whether anyone's going to buy some or all of Silicon Valley Bank. Not sure who would want to buy a bank whose failure was due in part to having a highly stressed depositor base.)
UBS Buying Rival Credit Suisse In $3.2 Billion Rescue Deal (forbes.com)
This is "in the weeds" but a big deal: Credit Suisse Bond-Wipeout Threatens $250 Billion Market
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S&P again downgrades First Republic Bank ratings (msn.com)
I don't think I've ever seen a situation where bondholders weren't fully repaid and yet stockholders weren't totally wiped out: Credit Suisse says $17 billion debt worthless, angering bondholders | Reuters
I have no idea whether this research is correct, but some folks are saying there are nearly 200 other US banks at risk if over half their depositors come to withdraw their money: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/mar/19/economists-warn-nearly-200-banks-are-risk-runs-fai/
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"Folksy nationalism" of farmers triumphs in Dutch elections: Populist Farmer Citizen Movement wins big in Dutch election (msn.com)
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Pfizer and Moderna look to increase COVID vaccine prices from around $35 to around $130 per dose once the government isn't the buyer anymore. Many politicians are upset, and not entirely without good reason. Moderna in particular benefited from federal money to rapidly develop their vaccine. Pfizer refused the development money but did have guaranteed purchase contracts if they were able to create the vaccine on their own, which they did.
Moderna's COVID vaccine gambit: Hike the price, offer free doses for uninsured | MPR News
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I realize it's tempting to do things to stop "porch pirates" but the odds are much higher that you'll end up in jail than that you'll stop a bad guy: 2 arrested after front-door ‘booby trap’ injures visitor in Colorado | NewsNation (newsnationnow.com)
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It's not only right-wing populists who eat their own. A liberal writing for the Colorado Sun notes how radical leftist Elisabeth Epps (and she is almost certainly the single most radical member of the state legislature) is complaining about being on the receiving end of the nasty, insulting behavior that she's perfected dishing out to others.
https://coloradosun.com/2023/03/20/epps-politics-denver-zornio-opinion
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I hate these stories: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/20/mothers-positive-drug-tests-poppy-seed-bagels
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Sure, the professor is an idiot. But do we really need to feed media's "outrage farming" by caring about stories like this? "If you ditched cereal boxes for uniform glass containers and opted for Plexiglas storage bins in your fridge, you may be engaging in classist, racist and sexist behaviors, one Chicago professor contends." . I'm not recommending you click on this, but here's the link. Again, my point here is that media of all stripes try to get you to click on stories that might make you angry but are very close to being utterly meaningless unless, perhaps, you have a student in this (or any) college: 'Pantry porn' rooted in racist, sexist behavior: Loyola doctor (nypost.com)
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Today's Videos
This is just too darn good...if you're a Coloradan trying to score some eggs in this world of semi-prohibition and crushing food prices, just make sure you do it right! Do NOT let law enforcement catch on, and the first step is the use of the proper language.
Alan Dershowitz (talking with Megyn Kelly) on the many weaknesses of the apparently impending indictment (and maybe arrest) of Donald Trump for what should not be a crime and for what, but for a wildly partisan Trump-hating prosecutor who already looked at this case once before and dropped it, would long ago have been relegated to the dust bin of history.
Congratulations, Mikaela Shiffrin, on another truly astounding season, complete with breaking one of the biggest records in skiing
Shiffrin ends World Cup ski season with yet another record | FOX31 Denver (kdvr.com)
She's too busy laughing to talk, as her current boyfriend interviews her:
And here's her last race of the season
Mike Pence reacts to audio from Donald Trump justifying calls to "hang Mike Pence" on January 6th. Pence is too nice about this. I guess he's just a genuinely nice person. Even when he talks about being angry, he's nice about it.
But what Trump did or, more precisely, didn't do on that fateful day should never be forgotten or forgiven. The answer to Jon Karl's question about whether Trump's behavior disqualifies Trump from holding future office is "hell yes, it does."
Just think about how remarkable this is. The latest version of the ChatGPT artificial intelligence:
More examples here: Everything you need to know about ChatGPT-4 - TechStory